CW Hangs His Head in Shame; Has His Butt Whipped By a "Moderate Liberal"

A bit ago, I wrote about mortgages and defaults, and on my video I talked about my sense that there was a correlation between the counties that were leading the foreclosure bandwagon and the propensity to vote Democrat. I said it a few months ago, and Goldwater's Ghost provided a counterpoint. I did it again this time and just got SPANKED hard because--I am simply wrong. Here's the take-down by Lietzy, who was the good fellow mentioned on the video as having answered my "why I should care" question:

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Lietzy here. I am a friend of (deleted), who sent around an email about your blog. I am also a Democrat, a moderate liberal originally from the Midwest, and a plaintiffs' attorney. As you know, I have taken a look at and read some of your posts.

Re: your post about foreclosures by county versus election results, I don't think your hypothesis holds water. I just focused on CA, AZ, NV, and FL (which is where over half of the foreclosures are located), and compared the counties to the election results. I used the counties that were flagged by www.realtytrac.com (which is where I got the data), so these aren't my arbitrary cut-offs of what counties have significant foreclosure rates. I then compared to the 2008 electoral map, which you can find here. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/election/uscounties.html Here is what I found (county name first, foreclosure rate per number of housing units, and election result, denoted by M or O).

AZ -- 1) Pinal 1/105, M
2) Maricopa 1/110, M
3) Santa Cruz 1/118, O
4) Mohave 1/146, M

NV -- 1) Lyon 1/29, M
2) Clark, 1/60, O
3) Nye, 1/91, M
4) Washoe, 1/107, O

FL -- 1) Lee, 1/64, M
2) Osceola, 1/74, O
3) Orange, 1/108, O
4) Manatee, 1/110, M
5) St. Lucie, 1/128, O
6) Lake, 1/150, M
7) Broward, 1/151, O
8) Collier, 1/155, M
9) Charlotte, 1/160, M

CA -- 1) San Joaquin, 1/67 O
2) Stanislaus, 1/68 O
3) Merced, 1/73 O
4) Riverside, 1/77 O
5) Madera, 1/81 M
6) San Bernardino, 1/82 O
7) Kern, 1/84 M
8) Solano, 1/111 O
9) Sacramento, 1/115 O
10) Yuba, 1/122 M
11) Lake, 1/124 O
12) Imperial 1/138 O
13) Contra Costa 1/140 O
14) Tulare 1/151 M
15) Fresno 1/154 M
16) Sutter 1/159 M

That's 16 McCain counties, and 17 Obama counties. I don't think that is statistically significant.

Just fyi, the worst default rates in Virginia were in Spotsylvania (McCain), Prince William (Obama), and Stafford (McCain)counties.

Why do you think that foreclosures are some sort of moral failure on the part of liberals, Democrats, and poor people? Who is telling you this, and why do you believe it? Also, apropos of my responses to your posting about why you should care about bailing out mortgage holders, did you see where most of the AIG bailout money went? That's right -- counterparties to AIG in mortgage backed CDS transactions.

Oh, and by the way, that train from Disneyland to Las Vegas is a myth.

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A couple of things.

I'm wrong on this. Just plain wrong. And I'm sorry about it. As for the questions:

1. Why do you think that foreclosures are some sort of moral failure on the part of liberals, Democrats and poor people? ANSWER: I think some of the people being foreclosed upon are truly not worthy of moral approbation. These were the "Group 1" people in my video--those who lost their jobs and who simply can't pay the mortgage, irrespective of the loan vehicle. I find the folks in groups 2 and 3 in my video worthy of moral approbation irrespective of their party, their ideology, or their wealth.

2. Who is telling you this and why do you believe it? Well, I suppose the voluminous amount of reading I do on the internet has helped create an impression in my head that there are several different categories of people who are defaulting, and it is my own sense of right and wrong, my own moral compass, that is leading me to believe that some of them are simply morally wrong; they overextended themselves in the hope of quick return, have gotten caught in it, and now seek aid--some who can still afford to pay their mortgages but who threaten not to.

What goes unasked here is why I was so convinced that there was a high likelihood that these counties voted Obama? That's easy. Because every time I turn around, I'm hearing some Democrat talk about how the "mortgage" industry preyed on unsuspecting homebuyers, disproportionately so upon people of color. Last I checked, people of color voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. So I suppose I connected the dots and assumed these counties were likely to be minority majority, and that they were therefore overwhelmingly likely to vote Obama.

As for the AIG part...my sense is that I wanted someone to explain why I should care about people being upside down in their mortgages. Lietzy answered because they were liable to walk away, with all the concomitant evils that he cites here. That said, just being upside down was not in and of itself reason for worry. Add in the "moral" consideration we talked about earlier, and wham-o, we've got folks walking away from their mortgages.

As for the train from Disneyland to Vegas (I think he's talking about Senator Reid's reported train set), I actually favor things like that, so it doesn't bother me a bit.

Lietzy, thank you for keeping me honest. I'll try and be better than this.