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2. His coalition. Barack Obama beat John McCain soundly in 2008 by cobbling together a coalition of reliable Democrats, young people, some Reagan Democrats, a lot of Hispanics and virtually all black people. Into the mix strayed independents who thought he represented "hope" and "change". This coalition will largely be intact for 2012, though he will have lost a goodly bit of the independent vote. Whether their defections will be sufficient to beat him is unclear--but he surely starts with a nice block of votes.
3. The Republican House. The rise of the Republicans in the House after 2012 has created a dynamic in which a) the President has made some moves to the middle b) the President appears to be making moves to the middle and c) the Press is fooled into thinking the President has made moves to the middle. The sum total of which is a growing perception that the President has moved away from his more liberal positions. Not surprising after the "shellacking" he took in 2010, but the perception of moderation works to his benefit among independents, and if the House overplays its hand and comes to be seen as a group of Conservative Jacobins (I know, work with me here), the President will appear even MORE moderate.
Is all hope lost? No. The President HAS in fact, alienated much of the muddled middle. The GOP has some potential candidates who have governed in executive capacities who know their way around budgeting and good government. The key here is for the House Republicans to give the GOP Presidential candidates victories and other symbolic events with which they can identify themselves. After all, if the election turns into a the GOP Presidential slate vying with Mr. Obama to distance themselves from the House, the race will surely go to Mr. Obama.
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4 comments:
He ran on "hope and change" last time. He's going to have a hard time energizing the same numbers in the next go around as there is no argument as compelling. The novelty has worn off.
I agree with most of that. His strengths are the office itself, the unions and special interests which will be pulling out all stops because they see it as survival, and the hardcore Democrats.
But he has a lot of weaknesses. This feint to the center will lose traction long before the election if the Republican House holds his feet to the fire. It'll be hard to appear a centrist while vetoing legislation. Also, he's lost many of the independents who by definition aren't really into politics but understand (and feel) pocketbook issues. Lastly, he's lost the youth vote. If you graduated from college in the past two years and I don't give a shit what your major was, you're working at Kinko's, and them khaki trousers are getting real old.
Beating Obama ain't gonna be a cakewalk but he can be beat. We just need a good candidate and a good message. The message has already been handed to us on a silver platter, all that's left is the candidate and that's where the Republicans are vulnerable. A long, brutal (and expensive) primary could be devastating and Obama could squeek by. But if everything breaks right for the Republicans we could be looking at a landslide of '84 proportions.
I've heard people on the left say we now have a Republican President. They've actually bought that he's moved not just to center (trust me, he hasn't) but that he's crossed over to the right (trust me, he CAN'T... without self-immolating that is).
If he can't be beaten, then we might as well run someone like Newt just so he can eviscerate Obama in the debates.
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