A Pox Be Upon the Lazy Gator Crowd

The Kitten and I did what modern parents and sorta parents do these days, and that is walk about with our children for Halloween.  Why this is, I simply don't know, but that's the way it is.  I don't remember Jimmy Wires trick or treating with us when I was a kid, at least when I was a kid who could spell and not wet my bed.  But now, it is a big social event, and we met up at a friend's house, had a wonderful meal with other parents who felt obligated--no, strike that--they wanted to walk about with their kids.  And then we set out to trick or treat.

We live on Maryland's Eastern Shore, and it is a relatively rural life.  Our little hamlet of Easton is the county seat, and it is a bucolic little town.  We are out in the county, amid the corn, soy bean and sunflower fields.  We trick or treat with friends in their "neighborhood" of maybe 40 houses, (an overhead shot is here, with the neighborhood being left of center along the water) which can be circumnavigated in about twenty minutes on foot.  It's quite a scene, with about twenty goblins, ghosts, wonderwomen, cowgirls and a respectable Joey Ramone flitting about the dark streets.  That's where the rant comes in.

There are lazy Josephuses who put their kids in the back of their Gators (we are one of the few respectable Talbot County farms without such a vehicle) and DRIVE this tiny little circuit.  Of course, they pull all the way into the driveways and then BACK OUT when the troop of little trick or treaters are trying to gain access to the loot.  It makes for a very annoying and slightly dangerous evening of what should be somewhat inebriated adult fun.

C'mon folks.  Get your fat asses out of the Gators and walk--if you must accompany your children.

The Least Surprising News EVER

After 72 days of wedded bliss, Kim Kardashian and Mr. Kim Kardashian have called it a day.

Ross Douthat on The Exploded Public Sector

The Hammer cited this article on Facebook, and since I am a big Douthat fan, I went right to it.  Well worth the read.  Here's a key graph:

Our entitlement system, meanwhile, is designed to redistribute wealth. But this redistribution doesn’t go from the idle rich to the working poor; it goes from young to old, working-age savings to retiree consumption, middle-class parents to empty-nest seniors. The Congressional Budget Office’s new report on income inequality points out that growing Medicare costs are part of the reason upper-income retirees receive a larger share of federal spending than they did 30 years ago, while working-age households with children receive “a much smaller and declining share of transfers.” Absent reforms, this mismatch will only grow more pronounced: by the 2030s, Medicare recipients will receive $3 in benefits for every dollar they paid in.

CAN RICK PERRY "REBOOT" HIS CAMPAIGN?

We've all heard that you get only one chance to make a good first impression. Unfortunately for Rick Perry, he blew that chance.

Perry was in the catbird seat. He entered the race as the front runner at 38% in some polls. By contrast Romney has barely gotten to 30% on a couple of occasions and usually polls in the mid to low 20's according to RealClearPolitics averages. Due in large measure (in my humble opinion) to Perry being a Texas governor with a good record (and maybe a little nostalgia for GWB), Perry looked like the man with the plan.

Can he "reboot"? Are we going to see Perry 2.0 turn things around and win the nomination? Not likely. In politics as well as business damaged brands are damaged brands. Once a product/company/politician, whatever, has been established in the consumer's mind as "damaged" it is nearly impossible to regain market share. It can happen, but almost never does.

Gov. Perry was on Fox this morning and he's a likable guy with some good ideas. I like him and would vote for him, but it's over. He's damaged goods.

WaPost Draws National Conclusion from Local Data@Fail

I was intrigued by the headline on this story, "The New U.S. Neighborhood Defined by Diversity as All-White Enclaves Vanish".  It seemed to me that this might be a bit of a stretch--that while I was certain that such demographic trends were the occurring in and around our DC, I wondered as to the extent of such trends in that great mass of easily dismissed "fly-over" country.  Sure--mostly Latin-American immigrants have made their way into communities across the country, but from the small sample size I've derived in my travels, I'd come to see them settling much as African Americans had, in areas with other just like they. 

Reading the story, it appears that the Post's intrepid reporters forged as far afield as Loudon County, Virginia, some 30 miles as the crow flies from DC.  No Nebraska.  North Texas.  East Colorado.  UP Michigan, Idaho...you get the picture.

Because something is a trend in the hipster coastal, urban areas--it is the NEW US NEIGHBORHOOD.  Get it. Because that's cool. Because "diversity" is cool, and "diverse" neighborhoods are just cooler than segregated neighborhoods.  Why?  Well because.  It is just so.

Northern Virginia Foodies, Take Note

Because here is a great site for restaurant recommendations coupled with enjoyable commentary. It's the observations of two fabulous people as they sample fare at a variety of Northern Virginia restaurants, with some stray reminiscences of a few out of the area establishments as well. You just may get an inspiration for dinner while you're taking a look, particularly if you have an appreciation for ethnic foods. Check it out!

Stock Market Prediction: Down, Down, Down

The Dow closed at 12,231.11 yesterday, and we've just been through one of the best months for that index in quite some time.  Buoyed by news from Europe that they've taken action to help the new "Sick Man of Europe (Greece)", investors seem to be riding a wave of enthusiasm that will--I'm sorry to say, come crashing down on them in the next month.  Here's a prediction:  on December 15th, the Dow will be under 11,000.

Why so glum?  I'm not glum, I'm practical.  I've written about this before--when the Dow was at 14,000 in October of 2007, it was weighed up by the ridiculous fiction that was the balance sheets of financial stocks.  When it was at 6500 in March of 2009, it was weighed down by people who had lost sight of the basic value of many of the industrials.  I said in March 2009 that the Dow had been overvalued by 25% at its high, and so its natural place was somewhere around 10,500, a figure that reflected the basic value of "the rest" of the market.

Here we are, two and a half years later.  Nothing has really changed in the basic fundamentals of the economy.  Unemployment is up a bit (from 8.6% in Mar 09 to 9.1% now).  No fundamental changes have occurred in 1) how we as a nation are addressing debt 2) how we as a nation are addressing financial regulation and reform and 3) how we as a nation are addressing revenue.  We are in the midst of a mini-bubble, caused by 1) a misplaced sense that the political agreements made in the Spring and Summer on the budget and the debt ceiling have had salutary impacts on the economy and 2) Europe's news.  It is all about to end.

In the next few weeks, nothing will dominate the headlines like the activities of the Congressional Super-committee.  Meeting largely behind closed doors (which I am ok with--see, Philadelphia, 1787), the Super-committee is meeting in order to come to agreement on how to deal with trillions of dollars in debt.  The "gun" to their head (and the rest of ours, presumably) is that if they DON'T come to some agreement, Defense gets cut by $650B and other discretionary spending gets cut by $650B.  If you thought our political system looked amateurish trying to deal with the debt ceiling, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

The prospect of a Presidential Election a year away provides both sides with incentives not to do a damn thing.  Positions are hardening on both sides, and the "gun" held to the head of the Congress was PUT THERE by Congress--it can be dropped at any time.  So we are left with the following scenario:  the Supercommittee is supposed to report out its "bill" to the Congress in three weeks.  They will not do so, as they will not have reached agreement on anything.  If they do, the bill will not be able to pass both chambers.  And so, the Congress will have to "extend" the mandate of the committee, or it will have to "drop the gun", both of which will ensure for the investing world a picture of continuing dysfunction in the American political system.  What's next?  Well, another credit downgrade, for one thing.  Any of the ratings agencies which have not yet dropped the US rating will HAVE to in order to continue to be taken seriously.  The dollar--the world's favorite reserve currency--will come under additional pressure, as what has been its bulwarks for 70 years--America's economy and its stable political system--will both be besieged.

Is the end near?  No, not really.  It's just that the present situation is not reality.  If you've got some profits to take--take 'em.  Because things will look differently in six weeks.

What a Romney v Obama Race Would Look Like

Yes of course, I'm getting way ahead of myself.  But that's what I do.  I've been thinking recently about what such a race would look like and several items occur to me.

1.  Both candidates appear to have problems with important portions of their electoral coalitions.  Governor Romney is having trouble appealing to evangelicals and some movement conservatives, and the President seems to be hemorrhaging white moderates AND far-lefters.  Let's face it--the far lefters won't vote for Romney, and the evangelicals/movement conservatives won't vote for Obama.  Those that do vote, will vote as we would expect, though many on each side will simply stay home.  And so, the election will be all about winning white moderates--who abandoned the Republican Party in significant numbers last election. 

2.  This will be a racially charged election.  The President realizes that his coalition is in trouble as whites defect, and so he will do whatever he can to 1) maintain his extremely high support among black Americans and 2) he will appeal aggressively to the Hispanic vote.  Governor Romney will continue to strongly support aggressive measures to limit illegal immigration, providing Republicans with something to cheer about while giving the President an issue to go to his coalition with. Things could get ugly.

3.  I believe the economy will quite obviously be the most important issue in this election.  I further believe that even if things get NO BETTER between now and the election, the President's electoral coalition--liberals, moderate whites, union members and public employees, and minorities--is sufficient to beat any of the Republicans except Mitt Romney. And so-if Governor Romney is the nominee and the economy does not improve, the President will have to do something fairly substantial to increase his chances.  This I predict--and I'm again, not the first--means Joe Biden gets thrown overboard.  Again folks--two conditions have to be in play for this to happen--the economy remains a dog, and Romney is the nominee.  If EITHER of these is not the case, Obama wins with Biden.

There you go folks, chew on that a bit.

Conservatism, and the Battle of the Sexes

Bill Bennett, former Secretary of Education and current self-appointed Determiner of What is Good and Proper in American Society, has turned his eye on men in America.  Put simply, he's demanding that American men "man up".  Put down the Xbox, pass up the Fantasy Football draft and, well, be men.  To be honest, I'm sort of drawn to Bennett's arguments, as I do sorta look with circumspection upon dudes who don't seem to want to grow up. 

Into the fray jumps a blog entry that takes apart some of Bennett's arguments...and more truth be told....some of the counters are pretty sensible too.  There's some flat-out misogyny in the post, but also some wisdom.   

H/T--Instapundit

WaPost Shamelessly Pursues Rubio

Well, it appears that the possibility of an Hispanic VP nominee is simply too much for the liberal intelligentsia to comprehend, as the attack machine is in high warble from the Washington Post to cut the rug out from under Florida sensation Marco Rubio.  We have a VP now who left a Presidential election in DISGRACE for having cribbed speeches from a British politician--but did we hear a peep of that from the WaPost last election?  Nah. 

Apparently Rubio's understanding of when his parents came to America and the facts appear to be at odds.  Whether this is because he is parroting their narrative, or because he has synthesized their story in order to make his own more interesting is the question.  I find myself not terribly interested in the answer, though I do find myself interested in the question--better yet, the timing of the question.

Big Fat Friday Free For All

Ok folks, let 'er rip!  What's bothering you today?  Pesky student loans need to be paid off?  Mortgage underwater? Don't worry--Uncle O will save you!

One Man's View of OWS

An interesting view of Occupy Wall Street.

Wild Ramblings on the Republicans

What is Rick Perry's major malfunction? Today he put the Obama's birth certificate back on the table. What is this guy thinking? "Birthers" are to Republicans what "9/11 Truthers" once were to Democrats. Omaba has been selling birth certificate coffee mugs at campaign events for Christ's sake (oh sorry, Presidential speeches promoting the administration's "Jobs Bill" currently being held up by Congressional Republicans so as to realize their dream of subverting the President at the expense of the American people). Anyway, is the guy stupid or just not ready for prime time?

I just heard Jon Huntsman on Fox and I've got some questions. First, do your parents know how to spell or are they just hopelessly trendy. How many votes do you think you'll generate by accusing mainstream Republicans as "anti-science" when global warming research has proven to be riddled with corruption? Also, you say Republicans are anti-evolution when any scientist worth his salt will tell you it is an important, but still unproven theory despite over 150 years of research. Lastly, wouldn't you be happier as a ski instructor?

Romney was in Ohio today and refused to support Gov. John Kasich's (or is it Jon) fight against public employee unions. So what is he up to? No balls or not too quick on the draw or is he the NEA's stealth candidate?

I do draw some encouragement from the tax issue however. Herman Cain's success has provoked a healthy debate and now every candidate is hard at work on tax reform proposals. My view is they can try to re-invent the wheel if they like, but the FairTax is all dressed up with no place to go (not that I would mix a metaphor). The FairTax as opposed to a flat tax or 9-9-9 has the advantage of being a well thought out, workable approach that has been vetted. And the country is ready to hear about it. Now is the time and I believe whichever candidate embraces this sublime and beautiful scheme will be the winner.

Prepare to be Inspired

Isn't this just so nice. Due to be published in spring 2012: Michelle Obama's book on how her very own garden is inspiring families, schools and communities (the cover says so). I wonder what happens less: Mrs. O working in the garden or anyone actually being inspired by the garden.

Interestingly, Paula Deen offers a different take on Mrs. Obama's oft-discussed healthy eating habits. And the White House is apparently livid about it, as the National Enquirer (yeah, I know) reports here.

Larry Summers Blows The Bubble

In a breathtaking example of not knowing when to stop digging when one finds oneself in a hole, former Secretary of the Treasury and of late--Obama economy czar Larry Summers--has an editorial in today's WaPost in which he attempts to lay out how to "solve" the housing crisis.  Some of it makes some sense (Summers can do that now and then), but his initial prescription is lunacy:   "First, and perhaps most fundamentally, credit standards for those seeking to buy homes are too high and too rigorous. The characteristics of the average successful applicant in 2004 would make that applicant among the most risky today. The pattern should be the opposite, given that the odds of a further 35 percent decline in house prices are much lower than they were at past bubble valuations."

Yes, that's right. Larry Summers believes what we need to do is have the government underwrite EXACTLY the kind of risky behavior that put us here in the first place. 

These guys have got to go....

Clinton, Bush, Should Come Clean

Robert Samuelson's got a great column in today's WaPost.  In it, he dreams aloud of a two-man tour of the country in which former Presidents Clinton and Bush would come clean as to the mistakes they made in office which helped put us where we are today.  A sample of the writing:  "Clinton would condemn Democrats’ ritualistic attacks on Republicans — he excelled at them — that equate any changes in Social Security and Medicare with demolishing the programs. Bush would challenge the world’s Grover Norquists for whom even the tiniest tax increase is an unpardonable sin inviting economic ruin."

 I shook my head as I read this, thinking how much I would love to see it (there was actually an event planned over a year ago for the two ex-Presidents to sit down together--I bought tickets, then it was canceled), but how impossible such a tour would be. 

We are fast approaching the time where even smart compromise won't work anymore, where we'll be consigned to the dustbin of history as the latest great empire to collapse under its own weight. 

T. Coddington Van Vorhees VII is In!

Iowahawk's favorite "kickin' it old school" Republican-T. Coddington Van Vorhees VII has declared for the 2012 Republican Nomination.  His declaration is a cry from the heart of Long Island Sound's most revered junior polo player.

Gameday

Up early to enjoy the sunrise with the dog.  It's a great scene here, geese in the cove, (gas)fires in the (gas)fireplaces, coffee, etc.  About an hour from now, I'll make the four-plus hour trek to Charlottesville for the UVA-NC State game, where the underachieving Wolfpack comes to town to take on the Wahoos, fresh off a big victory over then #12 ranked Georgia Tech.

I am, of course, wary of any game opponent that follows a big win.  NC State is 3-3, with ACC losses to a surprisingly tough Wake team and a very close loss to Georgia Tech.  This SHOULD be a very close game, which does not bode well for me returning home tonight at a decent hour, as the better the game, the longer it takes to get out of Charlottesville.

Oh....the other thing.  Hammer and I have a steak dinner on the game's outcome.

On Libya

I was struck yesterday by the coverage of Colonel Gaddafi's timely demise, in that for at least 6 hours--as I walked by silent TV's on Pentagon walls--it was covered as "breaking news".  Can something as final as a death actually "break" for several hours?  But--never mind that, on to substance.

David Ignatius has a column in this morning's WaPost in which he gives President Obama much praise for the conduct of the Libya operation.  Lauding his coolness, his veiling of things under NATO, his insistence on limited US participation and behind the scenes leadership--Ignatius does a reasonable job of citing what really was a very successful undertaking by the Administration.  The President is to be commended for the implementation of this campaign.

That said, there remains the question of whether the US should ever have been involved to the extent it was in the first place.  I believe not--this was not our war to lead or fight--it was the Europeans' war, who REALLY have the beef with North African illegal immigration and the thirst for Libyan oil. But because the Euro's have let their military power diminish under the umbrella of US protection, they found themselves unable alone to overturn the regime of even this tinpot dictator.   Hence US cruise missiles, drones, and jammers--all of which we brought in numbers early, in order that the Euros could then apply their feckless military to an already hobbled Gaddafi.  Oh...it still took another six months to pull it off.

The slope here is a slippery one, and questions as to "if Libya, why not Syria?  How about Saudi Arabia?  Bahrain?"  If the answer is that Gaddafi was a terrorist,well then why did we snuggle up to him three years ago?  If the answer is his repression of his own people by denying them the right to self-rule, I commend to you again the rogues gallery of other Arab regimes.

President Obama was right on Libya all the way from B to Z--it was the "A to B" move--to act at all--that was the wrong call.

The Obamaconomy Sucks, So Gene Robinson Wants to Talk Foreign Policy

In a classic case of deflecting attention from the problems at hand (read:  a sluggish, jobless, economy overwhelmed by Obama regulation and spending), Gene Robinson seems peeved that the Republican Presidential Candidates aren't spending enough time on foreign policy.  I suppose all that talk about how to create jobs is inconvenient to someone whose favorite is so clearly failing.

Can you imagine if the Republicans DID concentrate on foreign policy?  Robinson would be tut-tutting about how out of touch they are with the "pain" of "working people".