Saturday, March 7, 2009
Half of All 2008 Mortgage Defaults in 35 Counties
Here's an interesting story from USA Today, demonstrating that over 50% of the 2008 mortgage defaults occurred in 35 counties in these United States. THIRTY-FIVE COUNTIES! Don't TELL me this mortgage crisis is a nationwide problem, a "could I be next" kind of thing. The facts just don't support it. I wish they had provided the names of those 35 counties--because I would have spent the entire night working to determine how those counties allocated their presidential votes in 2008 and what the prevailing political conditions are there. I'd be willing to bet there is a statistically significant correlation between the likelihood of a county showing up in the top 35 and the propensity to vote Democratic--just as I'd be willing to bet that at an individual level, those who defaulted on their mortgages were more likely to vote Democrat.
But you can see where those 35 counties are because they're boxed in orange. Seeing where they are, it's pretty easy to figure out the prevailing political condition (though the Arizona counties are kind of surprising).
ReplyDeleteYes--you can see where they are...but I want the names...so then I can do the deep research. At this point, it really is just educated guessing.
ReplyDeleteHey, here's an idea....since we're obviously in the business (in this administration) of rewarding bad behavior, spreading around the ills of irresponsibility and picking winners and losers (as in, you win because we'll pay for your mortgage), why not simply declare these 35 counties "federal disaster areas", making residents and businesses eligible for federal disaster relief. Rules could be changed to allow homeowners to apply for these low-interest funds, which would be then "mortgagized" to 30 year, simple interest paybacks. This way, those who take the money become beholden to Uncle Sam for the payback, and we attack the problem with a "scalpel (as our President likes to say)" rather than an ax. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteIf you'll recall, I posed a similar question back in October:
ReplyDeleteI compared the 10 hardest hit regions of California (which accounts for almost a third of total US foreclosures) in terms of foreclosure rates (Q208 v. Q207 as reported by DataQuick) by the 2004 presidential election results.
The result:
County/Region YR/YR % Result
Monterey - 249.5% (Kerry)
Sutter - 243.1% (Bush)
Santa Cruz - 242.6% (Kerry)
Merced - 201.6% (Bush)
Sonoma - 197.8% (Kerry)
Santa Clara - 194.2% (Kerry)
Imperial - 188.6% (Kerry)
Stanislaus - 169.4% (Bush)
Napa - 162.5% (Kerry)
Madera - 158.1% (Bush)
Statewide - 124.9% (Kerry)
Of course, this was based upon 2004 election results. I'd be curious to see how they went in 2008...
As for your federal disaster idea, I recall reading it is being considered by a city in Florida.
2008, my friend. 2008. And that only speaks to the macro view...would love to see some data on the party/political affiliations of our the default populace.
ReplyDeleteI noticed the same thing. You can take a macro view and look at the states: California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Georgia (Atlanta Metro) and the Washington DC area. If you compare the USA Today map on foreclosures by county and then look at the 2008 election results by county it is remarkably similar. Is this plan needed to save the country or party?
ReplyDeleteBill