Obama At 50%

Brother Tom invited my attention earlier today to this latest Real Clear Politics tracking poll, which averages out the approval/disapproval ratings of a number of other polls. In the latest, President Obama is at 50.1% approval and 44% disapproval.

The conversation with Tom included a discussion of the following--since the President continues to enjoy overwhelming approval within the black community--what would the President's numbers look like if Black America supported the President at something OTHER THAN the 90% plus approval he enjoys today.

I'm a history major, so my math could be way off--but with a set of presumptions that include: Black America is 12% of the general population and blacks support President Obama at 90%, I'm left with the following conclusions:

1. If Black America were only "sorta" in the tank for Obama--let's say, it supported him at 67% rather than 90%--his approval number would be 47.3%. Or put another way--hold the undecideds constant and Obama's approval and disapproval ratings would be about equal.

2. If Black America were as conflicted as the rest of the country and supported the President at about a 40% rate, his overall approval rating would be 44.1%; again, holding the undecided rate constant, this would indicate disapproval numbers in excess of approval numbers.

What does this all mean? It means the Democratic Party's got a little problem on its hands, and that is, the President's approval rating among non-black voters has plummeted in his first year in office (as there is no sign of any increase in black disapproval). This can't be racism, at least not in any sense I understand, as presumably a lot of these non-black people voted for the President in the first place. No, I think this is just the political free market at work, and the President's brand isn't selling well.