Saturday, January 9, 2010

Peeling Back the Onion Can Make You Cry

A couple months ago, we had a discussion here and here about what goes into the Unemployment Rate calculations. While the U-rate itself serves as a sort of normalized snapshot to assess overall trends of employment, some of us contended that it was helpful to look under the hood of that number at some of the variables in the algorithm to get a more detailed look at the state of employment.

This article is one example of that.

Again, the algorithm certainly serves a purpose and it is the same algorithm (to my understanding) that prior administrations used so I'm not asserting numerical foul play on anyone's behalf here. But given the unprecedented post-Carter unemployment, it is worth looking more deeply (than the macro-level numbers we generally use as a bellringer of change during better times) to understand where the Administration's policies are working and where they are not.

2 comments:

  1. Unemployed due to losing a full time job but;
    1.Now working part time.
    2.No longer collecting unemployment compensation.
    3. Have ceased to activly seek employment.

    None of the above count toward the 10% unemployment figures. It is much worse than most realize.

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  2. The true unemployment figure is probably pushing 20%. But if you want to count the underemployed who knows what kind of number you'll come up with.
    These are tough times boys and girls. Obama has kept everybody on the unemployment dole for a good while and the rest of the world has already said they can't buy too much more dept. So that situation is going to end soon. Two things will happen as a result. You'll have some hurting, highly pissed off folks out there... and debt monetization (inflation). Get ready. And remember, there's a difference between currency and money. Currency is what my wife has in her purse (if I get any she takes it away from me). Money is the few dozen silver coins I've accumulated over the years. You get the point.

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