Yes of course, I'm getting way ahead of myself. But that's what I do. I've been thinking recently about what such a race would look like and several items occur to me.
1. Both candidates appear to have problems with important portions of their electoral coalitions. Governor Romney is having trouble appealing to evangelicals and some movement conservatives, and the President seems to be hemorrhaging white moderates AND far-lefters. Let's face it--the far lefters won't vote for Romney, and the evangelicals/movement conservatives won't vote for Obama. Those that do vote, will vote as we would expect, though many on each side will simply stay home. And so, the election will be all about winning white moderates--who abandoned the Republican Party in significant numbers last election.
2. This will be a racially charged election. The President realizes that his coalition is in trouble as whites defect, and so he will do whatever he can to 1) maintain his extremely high support among black Americans and 2) he will appeal aggressively to the Hispanic vote. Governor Romney will continue to strongly support aggressive measures to limit illegal immigration, providing Republicans with something to cheer about while giving the President an issue to go to his coalition with. Things could get ugly.
3. I believe the economy will quite obviously be the most important issue in this election. I further believe that even if things get NO BETTER between now and the election, the President's electoral coalition--liberals, moderate whites, union members and public employees, and minorities--is sufficient to beat any of the Republicans except Mitt Romney. And so-if Governor Romney is the nominee and the economy does not improve, the President will have to do something fairly substantial to increase his chances. This I predict--and I'm again, not the first--means Joe Biden gets thrown overboard. Again folks--two conditions have to be in play for this to happen--the economy remains a dog, and Romney is the nominee. If EITHER of these is not the case, Obama wins with Biden.
There you go folks, chew on that a bit.
So everybody is unelectable other than Romney? Rubbish!
ReplyDeleteNow is the perfect time to run a strong conservative; an advocate for freedom and capitalism and a believer in American exceptionalism.
Let's review recent elections shall we?
2008 John McCain, moderate Republican gets landslided by a first term HARD left Senator.
2000, 2004 GWB again a moderate establishment Republican, barely beats two leftist Democrats who start out with severe disadvantages.
1996 Bill Clinton wipes the floor with a moderate Republican.
1992 Bill Clinton wipes the floor with a moderate Republican incumbent President.
1988 GHWB beats a leftist Democrat whose campaign is still the gold standard for ineptitude (even after 2008).
1984 RR landslides a leftist Democrat.
1980 RR landslides a leftist Democrat incumbent President.
The fact is Romney is a vacillating, moderate/centrist Rockefeller Republican. He may win, I'll certainly vote for him if he's the nominee, but he's the guy Obama WANTS to run against and he could very well lose. Liberals LOVE running against moderate Republicans like Romney because they almost always win. It's the RR conservative they can't handle. And in an economic environment like this, the right conservative could win BIG!
Hammer, come on. To your 1992 comment, getting 42% of the vote is hardly 'wiping the floor with a moderate incumbent president.' Not that I disagree with your contention that now is a perfect time to run a strong conservative, but there simply isn't one available to us at the moment. People vote for a person and there's no one carrying the conservative platform at the moment with the right personality.
ReplyDeleteRidiculous, Hammer. Utterly Ridiculous. Your "research" could be boiled down to "everything sucks but Ronald Reagan". Here's one for you, Champ. BESIDES Reagan, give me one other successful movement conservative Presidential candidate? I'm waiting.....
ReplyDeleteJust go ahead and start chanting, Hammer...."Four More Years....Four More Years..."--because that's what your strategy gets us. Ideologically pure? Sure. But there is no prize for second place in the Presidential election.
I didn't say all but Reagan sucked, but I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that statement either. Hell, even RR did some stupid things like when Jimmy Carter created the Dept. of Education two weeks before the friggin' election and Reagan let it stand. He should have smothered that foul creation in the cradle.
ReplyDeleteLook, all I'm saying is this. Folks are looking for a bold, innovative leader who will restore the American Dream. They tried bold from the left, they don't like what they got. Now is the time to snap back with practical conservative proposals from the right that are rooted in reality not ideology. We can get real tax reform, we can get real cuts in spending and thereby let this economy explode .
We can do some good for this country and the World and make a leftist unelectable for twenty years (just like RR did) but we have to be bold! I'm sorry but Romney is not that guy. He is a good competent administrator but he is not going to take advantage and do the things that need to be done. We couldn't have had RR without Jimmy Carter and I would hate to see the opportunity presented by a failed leftist administration to go begging by electing "a good administrator".
Look CW I know he's your man and I don't hate the guy, but he's not the man we need right now. And this argument that he's the only one electable is just bullshit.