Send in the Hammer

Not me but it's such a great photo I had to use it.

As you may have noticed I've been rather quiet of late and for good reason. I have entered the world of electoral politics. That's right friends, I have decided to martyr myself on the alter of democracy with nary a hope of gain or self aggrandizement...or victory for that matter. It's just sort of a bucket list thing, you know, like CW's obsession with funny hats. You don't why you do it, you just do it.

My campaign efforts have amounted to setting up a Facebook page and Twitter account and writing letters to the local fish-wrap. But I seem to be ruffling a few feathers as I dig deeper into the local's bidnez. As most of us here I take an interest in politics that is top down orientated. Ask me an opinion on a national issue and I'll drone on for hours (especially if I'm drunk). State politics? What Ronnie Van Zant said about love applies to what I know about state government "I know a little... and baby I can guess the rest". MAYBE I would add.

But LOCAL politics? I know NUTHING! I am learning though. You actually wouldn't believe it, well you might. I always knew the locals were gaming the system. I knew it but I figured it's small potatoes compared to the majors. But if you multiply this times a thousand, or more like a hundred thousand and well, one comes to realize that the majors ain't the majors. These local grifters are doing as much or even more damage that the big boys in DC.

Just by way of example, the amount of money some of these farmers get for doing jack-shit is really incredible. Around here there are a handful of big landowners and if you look at the USDA database they get get 80-90% of the farm handouts from the feds. Look back over twenty years and all the names are much the same. Look at the names and then look at the local politicians and they're all the same families. It's like the European aristocracy of old: oldest son gets the estate, middle son joins the military or goes into politics, youngest son goes in the clergy. Talk about establishment? Their tentacles are everywhere. Peel back the layers and start putting the puzzle pieces together and it's a little disconcerting no matter how cynical you may be.

Also another huge avenue for corruption is "economic incentives". We just had a situation where a European drug company got $150-$200 million dollars in tax relief and cash, and the deal was negotiated by the local "economic development board" and get this, the State Economic Developers Association. Two North Carolina entities were cutting deals with each other for the benefit of a Danish multinational. As the end of the day all sides were grinning like a mule eating briars. Somebody, everybody got a nice payday courtesy of the local tax base. The losers in this rigged game? The taxpayers of the State of North Carolina and the citizens of the county who will have higher taxes to make up for it all.

As you might imagine, putting me together with entrenched, bucktoothed knots-heads intent on keeping the cash flowing has turned into a somewhat volatile situation. But I am quickly becoming an underground celebrity. Here's an email I received today from an anonymous source.

You do realize the piece in the paper today by XXXXXX is a reflection of who XXXXXXX really is. XXXXXXX is as big of yellow dog Democrat as there is in the county. XXXXXXX continually affiliated himself with them all the time because he was a big D until it was politically smart to be a Republican in the county. All the Democrat mayors are for him as well. Keep pounding as the Panthers say. XXXXXX is bad news and you nailed him with the truth. Good luck and I will be voting for you.

There is stuff like this, so I'm not giving up. Plus I live for all this. I love going toe to toe with an arrogant dickhead. I love being underestimated. I LOVE it when some jerk who thinks I'm a bug on the wall gets his ass handed to him by little ole me! I adore it! It's like Ali standing over Sonny Liston or Namath running off the field holding up #1. It's a bunch of kids beating the Red Army team in 1980. It's the thrill, the rush, it's what Patton talked about "loving so" (at least in the movie). I'm having a lot of fun regardless of what happens. 

However, if I go missing or am killed by a robber in the parking lot of Wally World (or ABC Store) or struck by lightening, you'll know the reason why. For the record, CW I leave you my books and I leave your brother Jimbo my LP collection. Everybody needs a good copy of Second Helping.  

Leaving New Orleans at a Bad Time

I am sitting in the New Orleans airport, only minutes after having my fourth "TSA Pre is closed" security check in the last eight flights. Just what it is I paid for to receive is increasingly up for conjecture. There does appear to be some correlation between standard human meal times and the likelihood of closure, which seems to me--given that people fly during these times--that the staffing plan should account for this. I of course fired off a tweet to @TSA, and I imagine I will shortly wind up on the no-fly list.

I have been in New Orleans for a couple of days. Originally, this was a trip with two purposes. The first (and surviving) was to spend half a day with the Midshipmen of the Tulane University NROTC Unit at the invitation of their CO--CAPT Patrick Huete--shipmate from days gone by. This half day of labor (yesterday morning) was pure wonderfulness, as I got to talk to the future of the Navy about the future of the Navy. They had a lot of good questions, and I am satisfied the country remains in good hands. Here's a shot of the Battalion just before I began to talk.

The second reason I was here was to look in on a little investment I have in New Orleans, but the gent who runs it had some emergent travel and we weren't able to meet. However, our past meetings here had led to my discovery of a little Cajun/Soul Food gem called Lil Dizzy's Cafe, where I met another friend (DC transplant) for a ridiculous lunch.

What I've come to discover since arriving here is that my timing--as New Orleans goes, is horrible. Apparently, Carnival swings into gear TODAY, and from the looks of the folks arriving at the airport, there is a festive mood awakening. I am not yet sold in New Orleans, though it is growing on me. I don't think I could ever get into Mardi Gras much, as I don't drink and this seems an essential part of the thrill. The other part though, is to actually belong to a "Krewe", which is from what I can tell, a rather exclusive club. Many Krewe's are ancient generational, and they march in particular parades on certain days. All of this I think, becomes far more important to one who grows up bathed in the pageantry. My boy Patrick has pushed New Orleans for as long as I've known him. Being here with him--the town he has come home to--was a great experience. We were talking in the car on the way to dinner Wednesday night (Crescent City Steaks) about how when you ask someone in New Orleans where they went to school, the answer is your high school. No one cares where you went to college--but your high school is destiny. As soon as we walked into the restaurant, standing there at the bar was a dude Patrick recognized from his high school, a year senior. A few members of the class were gathering for dinner to discuss the year end of their annual charity project, in which they provide hundreds of Turkeys to needy New Orleans families. A handful of dudes strolled in and Patrick knew them all.

I have no place like this. I think having one would be nice--but I don't think I require it. Perhaps I'm just not that social.

Your next trip, stay at Le Pavillon Hotel. It is haunted, and it serves a PB&J bar (I declined) at 2200 hrs. each night. It is a grand hotel, wonderfully appointed, unbelievably comfy beds, and reasonably priced.

On the Great Eastern Blizzard of 2016

In Dr. Stewart's "Physics of the Atmosphere" class in college (I think that is what it was called--he was an old bull in the physics department who had an interest in weather, and so he called what was essentially a meteorology class "physics") we were all charged with a fifteen page paper, and I chose to write on the subject of "Great Eastern American Snowstorms", one of which included Thomas Jefferson's wedding night blizzard in 1772 (I think was the year).  Apparently, nearly three feet fell in that great storm. Of note, Kurt Schick (funniest dude at UVA at the time) wrote a paper called "A Case of the Winds", a title that still makes me giggle, my potty humor fancy tickled. I wonder whether this storm will come to be included in some future writer's rundown.

All four of us are here, hunkered down on the farm, as it is "post-exams winter break" at school for Kitten #2. We are well prepared for things, what with a full larder, warm clothes, and for the time being, the means to binge watch various things on TV. I cooked the hungry Kittens an 8 pound oven stuffer roaster last night, and that bird was indeed tasty. It's leavings-along with a sacrificial rotisserie bird from Giant--were turned into The Kitten's famous chicken stew last night whilst we watched a movie.  Pretty homey little scene.

As I was saying, we are well prepared. For what, you may ask?  To sit around in a warm house and not interact with the elements in any way, shape or form until they have begun to behave themselves. I truly have no real need to drive my car until Wednesday, at which point the higher temps would have served to melt much of the snow. But--no plan survives contact with the enemy.

You see, just across the farm is the home of The Kitten's mother--and she has three wild Labrabeasts that she pays some dude to watch for her while she is gone--and she is in South Carolina for an extended period. That dude and The Kitten spoke yesterday, and it seems the care and feeding of these animals passed unto her in preparation for the coming storm. I knew this, as she last night assigned each of the Kittens to be her companion on these outings in the AM and PM. And so, after awaking and a bit of coffee, The Kitten began the elaborate ritual of robing for the elements, to include several trips back and forth in front of me as I sat on the couch rattling away at my laptop in PJ's and warm slippers. You know. Executing the plan AS FRAGGED.

Just after they left, a debate began raging on Facebook after a friend asked the logical question of when to shovel--now or when it is all done. Of course I had already made that decision, but was unnerved when friends whose judgment I trust--one of whom used to be a CANADIAN for Chrissake--advocated the little bit at a time method. Added to this discontinuous signalling was of course, the growing sense of guilt that my woman was out braving the elements whilst I farted around on Facebook. And so, killing two birds with one stone, I took to the stoops with my trusty shovel and began to clear one-shovel wide paths. Truth be told, I felt exhilarated by the process--I was bundled up warm and the snow was an easy shovel. I believe the Kitten was so flabbergasted at seeing me so engaged, that she stopped at the end of the driveway to capture the moment on pixels.

I will venture out again before the sun sets to hit the stoops once more. But in the meantime, I shall sit here on the couch in my bedroom and enjoy the toasty warmth of the pound of flesh taken out of me in  renovating this house five years ago. It really is a wonderful place to live--especially when the wind is howling and the snow falls east/west.

Some Navy Religion for the People

Not all of you like when I post Navy stuff here, but some do--especially my Dad. So this is for him. It is a panel discussion I participated in that the Surface Navy Association Symposium last week.

Thoughts On the Navy Crews Taken by the Iranians

I've been asked by a few of you to provide some thoughts on what happened in the Arabian Gulf the other day. I began to write something, and then saw this piece by my friend at Information Dissemination--and while I don't agree completely with all of it, I do agree with most of it. And so I have cut and pasted it below into this entry, with my own comments interspersed in bold italics.

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Thoughts on the Farsi Island Incident January 12 by Galrahn

By now most of you have heard the news of the initial incident and have read several details of the incident that have been reported in the press. The bottom line, there are still a lot of unknowns even as the incident was resolved diplomatically within 24 hours. Below are a few thoughts.

1) Even 48 hours after the initial incident it doesn't even appear CENTCOM or the Pentagon has a full accounting of the details of exactly what happened. People who have been telling the narrative since the incident first occurred are sure to be proven wrong, since they have almost certainly been guessing as to causes and motives. In the end, it is starting to look to be exactly what it looks like... a bunch of young sailors lost because of reliance on technology and/or machinery that failed. There is also, potentially, a training issue here related to navigation and leadership.

Couldn't agree more. When the incident was first reported, I was asked by a number of different entities to comment. I hesitated to speculate beyond indicating what I knew from dated experience. We observe their territorial standoffs meticulously, and they enforce them meticulously.  I could see no profit for the Iranians in seizing our boats/crews unless they had stumbled into Iranian waters. Note I'm not supporting what Iran did or saying that it was professional or legal. Simply that this was to me, the most likely scenario.

2) Those who are claiming the US Navy should have shot their way out of the standoff - when it appears the US Navy sailors actually involved appeared to have convinced themselves their ships were inside Iranian waters - make very interesting and yet terrible arguments for shooting at Iranians. Farsi Island may be a disputed Island in the Persian Gulf, but there is an IRGC naval base on that island and presence in the first rule of ownership. If the Iranian Navy, or Russian Navy, or any Navy drifted armed boats into US waters off Kings Bay, I suspect the US Coast Guard and/or US Navy would be very quick to point guns and be active in detaining the drifters.

Again, agreed. We are not at war with Iran, and it was plausible that those crews KNEW they had made this mistake. Additionally, as is stated above, there is an Iranian base at Farsi. My suspicion is that there was a firepower differential on the scene. 

3) I am unable to see any strategic advantage the US would have gained by fighting Iran inside the 3 mile zone of Iranian territory, and I am unable to see any strategic consequence to the US by not fighting Iran inside the 3 mile zone of Iranian territory. However, had the US Navy tried to shoot their way out of that situation, the strategic consequences would have been significant, and not just how it relates to Iran. Such a violent action would have given China a valid example to act the same way in disputed places in the South China Sea. If the US Navy is going to lead the global commons based on our interpretation of the rules at sea, the LT who apologized (and everyone on the political right is flogging) just forwarded America strategically. I note it is primarily the parochial arguments from people whose expertise lies in other military services like the Army who have completely ignored the details like global rule sets at sea who have been the loudest to shout at the Navy in this incident. With all due respect, this is an incredibly parochial and shortsided overreaction of the incident, because the National Review can and should do better than finding an Army guy - Bing West (whom I know and respect but wtf...) when it comes to a complex naval incident. This isn't the Pueblo, nor is it the Korean War. There will be no museum in Iran, and both the boats and the crews were returned.

Here is where I disagree with my friend. While I certainly do not believe the Lieutenant should be "flogged" by people on the right or anywhere else for that matter, his onscreen apology was imprudent. Note again, I did not say a violation of the code of conduct--as the code of conduct applies to when we are held as prisoners of war--which he and they knew they were not. But--he should not have said what he did--no matter how true it was. The only acceptable (to me) explanation for his conduct would have been if he had received ORDERS from higher headquarters as this thing went down, to make an apology. 

4) This is one of those difficult issues that, in my mind, separates serious people who care about serious strategic issues the US faces in the 21st century and demagogues who see conspiracy and opportunity in every political crisis. If you are a partisan who sees a conspiracy, go away. For the rest of us, there are serious naval issues here that need serious answers. These are a few of the initial questions that should be considered.

- Is the maintenance of the riverine command boats contracted to the point the onboard crew was unable to repair the problem? The crew of only 5 sailors per boat suggests to me that something might be off with the manpower and maintenance procedures surrounding these very capable chess pieces of naval equipment. The RCB is made to fight in the Persian Gulf, but a broken RCB isn't going to win.

 - This is a teaching moment if there ever was one, and as an incident this appears to represent a textbook case study on the reasons why the Navy needs more, not fewer, Commands for junior officers. It may be the opinion of some hard core political demagogues who have over a decade of tactical success combined with over a decade of strategic failure that this incident is somehow a defeat for America, but each new fact that emerges from this incident suggests to me this may be a case of procedural failure far beyond the scope of a LT... but when shit happened, strategic acumen by the officer in charge (LT) is potentially emerging as a feature in handling a bad situation and not making it worse. The facts are still unknown, and we may not know for sure for awhile, but regardless of what the facts are in the end I see this as a very teachable moment that favors the argument for early Command as often as possible for junior officers.

- I have no problem with high profile diplomatic incidents like this between the US Navy and Iran, as long as for each incident the actions of the US Navy is aligned with the strategic aims of the United States. If the US Navy had attacked the IRGC inside the territorial waters of Farsi Island to defend their boats, this would be a major strategic setback for the US. Had the incident occurred outside the territorial waters of Iran and the US Navy not fought back; that would also be a strategic setback for the US. Right now it appears the US Navy sailors on the scene did everything right.

- The only way to produce a genuine strategic failure from this incident is to unfairly punish those involved, in other words... if the Navy wants better commanders, handle early career mistakes the right way. Tell me how any of those 10 sailors are somehow worse off for this incident. If legitimate mistakes were made, deal with it appropriately, but pinning blame for things out of their control would be a failure of leadership, and in my mind an unforgivable sin.

- At the end of the day, this was a real diplomatic test of the US and Iran who under the recent agreement are partners in Iran's nuclear energy ambitions. The outcome is very positive for the United States. I don't trust the government of Iran, but I am yet to see anything from this incident that suggests to me Iran has has been inappropriate. If you're the American Idiot who doesn't think it was appropriate for the US Navy sailors to have their hands on their heads at any point in the engagement near the IRGC base on Farsi Island, try drifting your private armed boat into the US Navy area of Kings Bay or Norfolk or New London and pretend like there is a snowballs chance in hell you will get out of there without your hands on your head. You will have your hands on your head, or if you point a gun back at the US Navy or US Coast Guard, you will be shot dead by very serious people who protect that location and will be pointing guns at you. You don't even have to be an Iranian for that outcome to occur, nor will you need an Iranian flag on your boat, a US flag will result in the same action. Wake up people, don't let the silly season control your ability to think with objectivity.

It is entirely plausible to me that the recent deal with the Iranians and the familiarity it bred among negotiators aided in the relatively quick release of our Sailors. One would be ignorant not to at least consider this. But--one should also consider the possibility that the negotiation bred a familiarity that we did not bargain for, that we had been measured and found wanting. That the Iranians believed that they could do this with little or no fallout, and that their position as a power in the Arabian Gulf would be improved by taking us on. It would be just as ignorant not to consider this possibility, and others for that matter. 

As for the Sailors on their knees and the female in hijab, the bottom line for me is that when rough men with guns are pointing them at you, in virtually all cases you do what you are told. 

I look forward to learning what really happened, because at the end of the day we have a well armed naval craft in the middle of the Persian Gulf with a serious mechanical problem that couldn't be quickly resolved apparently combined with some incredibly bad navigation from two crews who somehow found their way to the only piece of land between their departure location and destination that could create a diplomatic problem. When you swim past all the political bullshit, the serious naval specific issues on the table leave a lot of serious questions that deserve serious answers.

What my friend describes as "political bullshit" I am not as quick to dismiss. It is difficult for me to separate Iran's willingness to tweak us, their willingness to fire rockets in the vicinity of our aircraft carrier--with their sense that these actions would be impact free, born of a lack of regard for our power. There are serious "naval" issues here of course--but there are also serious political ones--and in the end, the two will almost certainly be related.

So, Who's Next?

Well well well, what have we here? You know I could crow about how I was saying a year ago Hillary would NOT be the nominee, but I'd be an asshole (well, MORE of an asshole). But I did, right up until Bernie gave her a pass on the emails and then I thought it was a cruise on home situation. And she may still win, but whoa Nellie, things are looking very shaky indeed over at the Clitoris Foundation.

Yep, it looks like to me Hillary could lose Iowa and almost certainly WILL lose New Hampshire. She may could survive New Hampshire but if she loses both then BIG MO comes into play and all you'll hear is 08 this and 08 that. Who can we thank for Hillary's troubles? Who else, The Donald.

Say what you will (and you will) Trump is running circles around all these "PROS". He beats up on Jeb like it was fun (it may be) and he laid a trap for the World's Smartest Woman and she fell for it hook, line and schlong. He took down Bill Clinton like HE took down Juanita Broderick and didn't even have the damn common courtesy to say "put some ice on that". As a result Hillary's numbers among the all important white chick demo has collapsed. Oh my! I'm telling you, the Clintons ain't what they used to be. Bill looks like total shit and has the stage presence of a cadaver and Hillary is all doddery with a grandma vibe. I expect her to walk on stage one day farting with every step. Regardless of who wins on the Republican side, Hillary's ass is grass assuming she does indeed hold on.

A young, sharp politician like CW's pin-up boy Marco Rubio would destroy her just with the optics. Ted Cruz would cut her up. Trump would make a laughing stock of her and have her melting under the lights like a bowl of Ben & Jerry's Schweddy Balls. All thanks to THE DONALD!

But if Hill & Bill do crash and burn (through politics or indictment) who then will fill the void? Please don't say Bernie, even the Democrats ain't crazy enough to run a guy who doesn't even have the brains to hide the fact he's a damn commie. He's out for a hundred reasons. Biden? Possibly. I talked about just such a scenario a few months back on this very rag of a blog. I've heard Al Gore, which I find hilarious. Run Al run! And if Al indeed CAN run more than say...50 feet, we'll give it to you by default. Elizabeth Warren? Possibly. And now we come to a guy who is slick enough to win, Martin O'Malley. I know, unlikely in the extreme. I don't disagree. But I've told you before and I'll tell you again, he's the best politician in the bunch, maybe even on both sides.

A Hostile Takeover!

I read with a combination of amusement and bemusement a NY Times piece this morning on the fix the Republican Party establishment finds themselves in. Unlike much of the Times political reporting this one rang true. The Old Grey Bitch is still worth reading, sometimes, I guess. But there are a few quotes I wanted to share and comment on.

The first from ex-George I Attorney General Dick Thornburgh “I know Republicans who will support Hillary if Trump or Cruz is the nominee, no question.” That's nice, an absolutely brilliant strategy and the picture of maturity. If I'm reading this right (help me out here CW) the plebeians who put Richard Nixon in office along with both Bushs and contributed/volunteered/voted for Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney are now looked upon as uppity house negros and therefore Hillary is more acceptable! So this is the 2016 Republican Party? Not the Party of RR but the Party of David Frum, Rick Wilson and David Brooks. The Party that excludes (unless you're Hispanic), has forgotten family values (for God's sake, don't talk about abortion!) and fiscal responsibility (we had no choice, the Omnibus was a done deal). No, can't make those mistakes again, that's in the past. Now we are the Party of hedge fund managers and K Street. The Party of the successful, i.e. those who work both sides of the aisle and (wait for it) hedge their bets. People who have a pay-for-play mentality with no morals, no ideology apart from expediency and narrow self-interest, people who will bolt in a heartbeat if they don't see a return on their "investment". The money-changers who care not one iota for America or Americans because hey, we've gone GLOBAL! They run the Party now?

“I haven’t seen this large of a division in my career,” said Senator John McCain. McCain goes on to say maybe Reagan/Ford in '76 was similar. To which I say, NO SHIT!? How about the exact same thing? But then again at least there was some attempt at reconciliation. Ford dumped Nelson "Hold on baby I'm getting chest pains" Rockefeller who was completely unacceptable to conservatives in favor of Bob Dole (Jeez, what's the diff?) and Reagan took the unprecedented step of naming his VP prior to the convention vote (in case you're wondering it was Senator Richard Schweiker from Pennsylvania, a real weenie). Now we get nothing. Apparently both sides want to kill each other. Which brings me to the last quote.

“The Republican Party has never done anything for the working man like me, even though we’ve voted Republican for years,” said Leo Martin, a 62-year-old machinist from Newport, N.H., who attended Mr. Trump’s Claremont rally. “This election is the first in my life where we can change what it means to be a Republican.”  Hold the phone! Change what it means to be a Republican? Is that what this guy said? Establishment Republicans have no problem changing, let's say what it means to be an American. But to change what it means to be a Republican? You just better wait just a God-damn minute. The establishment types think they own the joint. THEY decide who is and who isn't a Republican, not a bunch of stump-jumpers out in fly-over country. This is unacceptable! Who will guarantee our trade deals? Who will look out for our stock portfolios? Who will bail out the bankers who bailed out the industries that bailed on America? My God this is like a hostile takeover and we can't have it. Best put our resources behind Hillary and we'll get 'em next time.

...and you guys wonder how all this could be happening.

Tea Party Gets Victory It Sought, Moves Goalposts

Republicans in both the House and Senate have delivered unto the Tea Party a victory for which they have clamored, and that is legislation repealing Obamacare. One would think that they would be dancing in the streets, as for a long time, their response to the "but the Democrats hold the White House, numbers don't lie, the President will veto it and we'll be right back where we started" with the strategically inept "So what. We want to see that those RINOS are fighting for us. Make him veto a hundred bills." And so that's what they did, with Speaker Ryan delivering the House yesterday. Are they happy with getting exactly what they asked for.

No, of course.

What we NOW hear from the Tea Party (in the House--the "Freedom Caucus") and its adherents are cries akin to the Lost Cause rhetoric of the South--the "we shoulda" school of politics which states that this legislation is bogus, and that the GOP leadership should have taken the President to the brink on shutting down the government. This is silly, of course. While I believe the degree to which Republicans have suffered as a result of past shutdowns is way overblown (I'm not sure the 2014 shutdown hurt much at all), there is no question in my mind that shutting down the government HELPS the President. He tends to look concerned and in charge and responsible, while the Republicans look like reactionaries and swivel eyed loons. Don't get me wrong; there's a part of me that emotionally would have liked to see the government shut down for a couple of weeks in order to make a point. But anyone who believes that such a tactic would ultimately have led to victory on the issues is mistaken. What Ryan and McConnell have done here is a reasonable needle-threading, one that makes every member of both chambers render their support for or objection to Obamacare in an important vote as the 2016 elections approach. They did not burn their ships on the beach, but that's not what responsible Generals do.

The Official TigerHawk Predictions for 2016

We're not sure what the rules are, but predictions seem to be a "thing" around here. Well, here are a few, audacious and otherwise, verifiable, or not, wishful thinking, or not.

1. Marco Rubio will win the Republican nomination for president, and become the first actually young GOP nominee since Thomas E. Dewey in 1944 [Corrected per comments below], beyond the memory of virtually all living Americans. The era of pharty old dudes will come to an end, for better or for worse. Youth has the potential to matter a lot, because legal weed initiatives will drive the youth-social libertarian turnout in several key states. See #13 below.

2. The Iowa Hawkeyes will win the Rose Bowl this afternoon, but will not cover the spread (now standing at 6 points). Note that the shelf life of this prediction is about 9 hours.

3. UVA won't do any of that stuff CW predicts, even if it would make the TigerHawk nephews very happy.

4. Barack Obama will "use his pen" to issue an executive order on guns, and it will cost the Democrats at least one swing state: Colorado, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.

5. I will weigh not more than 205 pounds on December 31, 2016 (202 today).

6. Against expectations, Ted Cruz will campaign aggressively and positively for the GOP nominee (even if #1 is wrong), he will mend as many fences with Republican Senators as possible, and will be on the short list for Attorney General if the Republicans win in November. Once they wake up and realize Cruz's true talent, conservatives will want to put him in a position for eventual nomination to the SCOTUS when Antonin Scalia retires.

7. ISIS will be substantially weaker by the end of the year, and may even recede as a GOP talking point by Labor Day.

8. Barack Obama will not be invited to campaign for the Democratic nominee, who will probably be Hillary Clinton, with the possible exception of events devised to promote African-American turnout.

9. Nobody will "steal" the presidential election, just as nobody has done in the history of the United States (no, not in 1960 or 2000, either).

10. Immigration, legal and otherwise, will continue to be a huge issue in the general election, and the Democratic nominee will visibly tack to the center. Pundits will agree that Donald Trump gets the credit or the blame for this, but news of the migration crisis in Europe will make even American liberals pause.

11. Donald Trump will neither win the nomination nor run as an independent, but he will suck up a "huge" amount of air time at the Republican convention and have a "huge" impact on the platform, such as it is. He will not campaign for the GOP nominee, and will say things during the general election that the Republicans will have to delicately disavow.

12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will crack 20,000 during the year, but close below. Oil prices will continue to languish.

13. The legal weed movement will hit a tipping point in 2016, with blue, purple and even red states in the mix. This will drive turnout among the young social libertarians, including in must-win Ohio and swinger Nevada. Not only will this force the GOP nominee to take a dovish position on weed, but it will drive social conservative issues (which are unpopular among millennials) in to the background no matter who the Republican candidate is.

14. The inequality issue will continue to loom large (as it should). Because the weed-driven youth turnout will be a huge wild card, the Republicans will emphasize "opportunity" rather than tax cutting in their rhetoric. This will be especially important and especially likely if Rubio is at the top of the ticket.

15. Hillary Clinton will not be indicted in 2016. CW is a year early on this one. However, if Ted Cruz realizes my aspirations for him and becomes Attorney General in 2017, look out!

Of course, your results may vary.

Predictions: 2015 Results, 2016 List

Here are the predictions, with results. Pitiful.

1.  Mitt Romney will be an active candidate for President on 31 December 2015. No
2.  The Supreme Court will deal at least one generally considered large setback to Obamacare. No
3.  The market will not break 19,000 in 2015. Yes
4.  I will weigh not more than 182 lbs on December 31, 2015 (195.2 today) Yes (159)
5.  UVA's President will resign in 2015. No
6.  UVA Basketball will make it to the 2015 Final Four. No
7.  The national average for unleaded regular gasoline will be above $3.00 ($2.29 today). No
8.  Unemployment will be above 6.0% on 31 December 2015 (5.8 today). No
9.  There will be a coup in Venezuela. No. 
10.  The Denver Broncos will win the Super Bowl, and Peyton Manning will retire immediately thereafter. No.

And here are the predictions for 2016:

1.  Marco Rubio will be elected President.
2.  The Virginia Men's Basketball Team will get to the Final Four
3.  The Arizona Cardinals will win the Super Bowl.
4.  Hillary Clinton will be indicted.
5.  Tiger Woods will win a Major Championship.
6.  Virginia Football team will win six games or more.
7.  I will weigh equal to or less than 159 (what I weigh as I write this) on this date in 2016.
8.  One Supreme Court Justice will either leave office or die in office. The vacancy will not be filled in 2016.
9.  Chip Kelly will not coach a football team in 2016
10. Coach K will retire after this season.


Happy New Year!

Resolutions: 2015 Scorecard, 2016 List

Here are the 2015 resolutions, with result commentary:

1.  I endeavor to be less sarcastic/caustic/ironic.  FAILURE
2.  I will re-institute E-Shabat.  6PM Friday to 6PM Saturday. Pretty good until June, spotty since
3.  I will take more of an interest in the yard/gardens. FAILURE
4.  I will finally get the gas fireplace installed in the bedroom. SUCCESS
5.  I will eat more modestly. SUCCESS
6.  I will exercise more frequently.  SUCCESS
7.  After my hip replacement, I will work to be more physically flexible. Modest Success
8.  I will take at least one vacation of not less than two full weeks. FAILURE
9.  I will read more. SUCCESS
10.  I will play more golf. FAILURE

And here are the 2016 resolutions:

1.  I will weigh what I weigh today (159) or less
2.  I will continue to eat modestly
3.  I will take at least three vacations of at least one week each.
4.  I will have more bodily flexibility at this time next year.
5.  I will argue with kindness, control, and love.
6.  I will exercise at least four times each week
7.  I will spend more time on the water around me.
8.  I will make some significant upgrades to the ManCave.
9.  I will make time for conversation with The Kitten before bed each night.
10.  I will put at least 15% of my gross income into my 401K

The Hammer's 2016 Election Predictions

1. Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucuses on February 1st. No one will drop out.
2. Eight days later Donald Trump will squeeze out a narrow victory in New Hampshire which will force most of the weaker candidates to quit. Cruz, Rubio, Christie and Bush stay in. Jeb will receive less than 4% of the vote and be under tremendous pressure to do well in South Carolina. 
3. Trump will win South Carolina by nearly 20 points resulting in Christie dropping out. Cruz will have a respectable outing but Bush and Rubio will be hanging by a thread hoping to do well on Super Tuesday. 
4. Trump runs the table on Super Tuesday apart from Colorado (Rubio), Virginia (Bush) and Alaska (Cruz). 
5. Everyone hangs around until March 15 when Trump wins North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and most importantly Florida (by 20 points). Rubio and Bush drop out. It becomes a two man race with Trump in a commanding position. 
6. Cruz does respectably well but it's an uphill battle. Trump wins the nomination. 
7. Senator Ted Cruz makes the ticket. 
8. Hillary breezes to the nomination in spite of the relentless attacks from Team Trump. Bill Clinton proves to be a weak campaigner due to ill health and past indiscretions. Chasms emerge within the Democratic Party similar to what the Republicans have endured throughout the election cycle.
9. Trump wages an anti-Wall Street, anti-open borders, anti-government campaign advocating a near isolationist foreign policy with an emphasis on re-industrialization and job growth. Trade protectionism will be a key theme. Big Business chooses Hillary, much of labor chooses Trump.
10. Trump wins with a solid South and important rust-belt states such as Ohio and Michigan. 

The Hammer's Christmas Day Primer: The Budget Process (according to Ryan)

Several threads back on this very blog I vented with righteous indignation how Paul Ryan and the Republicans "gave away the store" (a key Democrat's phraseology) with this Rosemary's Baby of a Omnibus budget. In addition an anonymous commenter was perplexed as to why a Super-Genius like CW would allow an obvious "clown" like me access to his blog because I "...clearly don't have the same level of understanding about the legislative process" CW possesses.  CW (being the sometimes prick that he is) piled on claiming my entry was "over the top" and "uninformed". Well, never one to back down from a fight (remember Ft. Sumter) I offer a mild rejoiner.

WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!? I have an intimate knowledge of the budget process! Don't believe me? Ok fine, I'll prove it. Here's how it's supposed to work.

February the President presents his budget to Congress, his Santa list if you will. It's all the cool shit he wants but IN NO WAY expects to get. Both houses of Congress send the proposal down to various committees including the...wait for it...the Appropriations Committee. They part it out to various sub-committees to slice and dice. What comes out is 10 or 12 spending Bills which are hashed out, amended, reconciled etc. etc. until every last power player gets something they can crow about back home in Bumfuqington, Idaho (no YOU da ho). If they can't get a budget done (which is the new normal under Democrats) they just do a "continuing resolution" which means overtime for the last budget. It could be a day, a month...whatever.

But what happened this time is the Republican leadership, Speaker Boehner and Mitch McConnell really couldn't bring themselves to vote on anything that might smell of true fiscal discipline and they certainly didn't want to piss off the Chamber or somehow screw up the 2016 elections (or a hundred other things cowards think about when they have to make a decision) so they kicked the can down the road to the point an "Omnibus" was necessary. In other words all these individual appropriation bills were lumped into one. In this case it was sorta like a group gang-bang on conservative principles (you knew you were getting screwed it's you just didn't know who's penis it was).

The Democrats loved it!

“I said I would not accept a lot of [conservative] ideological riders that were attached to a big budget deal, and because of some terrific negotiations by the Democrats up on Capitol Hill and I think some pretty good work by our legislative staff here… it was a good win. We met our goals”. President Barack Obama.

“We wanted to get rid of sequestration, we were able to do that. The Omnibus deal caps off a successful year for Senate Democrats”. Harry Reid.

“Well, if you would’ve told me this year that we’d be standing here celebrating the passage of an omnibus bill, with no poison pill riders, at higher [spending] levels above sequesters than even the president requested, I wouldn’t have believed it, but here we are,” Democratic Sen. Chuck Schemer.

So where did the Republicans go wrong, assuming of course they in fact believe they screwed up? Well first thing they did was announce that a government shutdown is "off the table". Their goal was to show everybody that they can make "government work". Well guess what? They ain't the fuqing government, they are the Congress. The administration administers the government. Their job is to steer the government in the direction the people want it to go through the legislative process, specifically the budget. No money no harebrained leftist schemes like importing half of Syria. See how that works? By proclaiming that their only leverage would absolutely, positively NOT be used was first a negation of their duty and Constitutionally mandated authority and secondly an act of incompetence and cowardice the likes I've never seen. Or...OR there is another possibility. And that is they are liars and cheats and are now the Republican wing of the Progressive movement. My bet is on number three. 

Merry Christmas

Shutting down now for a couple of days.  Be good to one another.  Merry Christmas from The Conservative Wahoo.

-----------------------

Luke 2King James Version (KJV)

2 And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be taxed.

2 (And this taxing was first made when Cyrenius was governor of Syria.)

3 And all went to be taxed, every one into his own city.

4 And Joseph also went up from Galilee, out of the city of Nazareth, into Judaea, unto the city of David, which is called Bethlehem; (because he was of the house and lineage of David:)

5 To be taxed with Mary his espoused wife, being great with child.

6 And so it was, that, while they were there, the days were accomplished that she should be delivered.

7 And she brought forth her firstborn son, and wrapped him in swaddling clothes, and laid him in a manger; because there was no room for them in the inn.

8 And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.

9 And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid.

10 And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.

11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.

12 And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.

13 And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying,

14 Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

15 And it came to pass, as the angels were gone away from them into heaven, the shepherds said one to another, Let us now go even unto Bethlehem, and see this thing which is come to pass, which the Lord hath made known unto us.

16 And they came with haste, and found Mary, and Joseph, and the babe lying in a manger.

17 And when they had seen it, they made known abroad the saying which was told them concerning this child.

18 And all they that heard it wondered at those things which were told them by the shepherds.

19 But Mary kept all these things, and pondered them in her heart.

20 And the shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all the things that they had heard and seen, as it was told unto them.

21 And when eight days were accomplished for the circumcising of the child, his name was called Jesus, which was so named of the angel before he was conceived in the womb.

22 And when the days of her purification according to the law of Moses were accomplished, they brought him to Jerusalem, to present him to the Lord;

23 (As it is written in the law of the Lord, Every male that openeth the womb shall be called holy to the Lord;)

24 And to offer a sacrifice according to that which is said in the law of the Lord, A pair of turtledoves, or two young pigeons.

25 And, behold, there was a man in Jerusalem, whose name was Simeon; and the same man was just and devout, waiting for the consolation of Israel: and the Holy Ghost was upon him.

26 And it was revealed unto him by the Holy Ghost, that he should not see death, before he had seen the Lord's Christ.

27 And he came by the Spirit into the temple: and when the parents brought in the child Jesus, to do for him after the custom of the law,

28 Then took he him up in his arms, and blessed God, and said,

29 Lord, now lettest thou thy servant depart in peace, according to thy word:

30 For mine eyes have seen thy salvation,

31 Which thou hast prepared before the face of all people;

32 A light to lighten the Gentiles, and the glory of thy people Israel.

33 And Joseph and his mother marvelled at those things which were spoken of him.

34 And Simeon blessed them, and said unto Mary his mother, Behold, this child is set for the fall and rising again of many in Israel; and for a sign which shall be spoken against;

35 (Yea, a sword shall pierce through thy own soul also,) that the thoughts of many hearts may be revealed.

36 And there was one Anna, a prophetess, the daughter of Phanuel, of the tribe of Aser: she was of a great age, and had lived with an husband seven years from her virginity;

37 And she was a widow of about fourscore and four years, which departed not from the temple, but served God with fastings and prayers night and day.

38 And she coming in that instant gave thanks likewise unto the Lord, and spake of him to all them that looked for redemption in Jerusalem.

39 And when they had performed all things according to the law of the Lord, they returned into Galilee, to their own city Nazareth.

40 And the child grew, and waxed strong in spirit, filled with wisdom: and the grace of God was upon him.

41 Now his parents went to Jerusalem every year at the feast of the passover.

42 And when he was twelve years old, they went up to Jerusalem after the custom of the feast.

43 And when they had fulfilled the days, as they returned, the child Jesus tarried behind in Jerusalem; and Joseph and his mother knew not of it.

44 But they, supposing him to have been in the company, went a day's journey; and they sought him among their kinsfolk and acquaintance.

45 And when they found him not, they turned back again to Jerusalem, seeking him.

46 And it came to pass, that after three days they found him in the temple, sitting in the midst of the doctors, both hearing them, and asking them questions.

47 And all that heard him were astonished at his understanding and answers.

48 And when they saw him, they were amazed: and his mother said unto him, Son, why hast thou thus dealt with us? behold, thy father and I have sought thee sorrowing.

49 And he said unto them, How is it that ye sought me? wist ye not that I must be about my Father's business?

50 And they understood not the saying which he spake unto them.

51 And he went down with them, and came to Nazareth, and was subject unto them: but his mother kept all these sayings in her heart.

52 And Jesus increased in wisdom and stature, and in favour with God and man.

King James Version (KJV)
by Public Domain

CW for Rubio up to $13007!

Many thanks to all the wonderful donors who have put us WAY ahead of our fundraising total in 2012.

Remember--just click double click the picture of the Rubio fundraising form to the right and it will take you to a link where you can donate directly to the CW for Rubio effort.

The goal in 2012 was $25K and we made it.

The goal in 2016 is $100K--we've got work to do!

Heading Home for the Holidays

I write from gate B2 at the Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood Airport after having once again suffered indignities at the hands of TSA. It's been a long week of travel, in which I left last Sunday through Wednesday for biz in San Diego, returned on Wednesday's redeye (I love children, especially babies, but they should be banned from redeyes), checked in with the family on Thursday, and departed for Florida on Friday. Here I sit awaiting transportation back to Baldymore, then an hours drive to Easton.

San Diego was pretty straightforward, so much so that it did not rise to the level of blogworthiness. I did however, get to spend time with two of my shipmates from USS PRINCETON (CG 59) at dinner, one of whom just took command of his own destroyer, and the other of whom has already commanded both a destroyer and a destroyer squadron. Seeing your friends thrive is one of the great benefits of retired status.

My check-in at home had one main objective, and that was the procurement of the Christmas Tree. The Kittens enjoy going to the tree farm, selecting one from the field and cutting it down. I have always considered this more trouble than it is worth, but am consistently outvoted. Before I left for San Diego last Sunday, I checked the oncoming weather for Easton and saw that Thursday would be a very rainy day. I suggested (via text message) that the Kittens watch the weather, and if it looked ugly, they should consider just going to Lowes and grabbing one. As the week progressed, the weather report did not change. Not one bit. The Kitten--when queried by phone on Wednesday--questioned my heartiness in the face of "a little rain", and so sufficiently chastened, I resigned myself to the drudgery of soggy tree cutting.

Thursday dawned as I awoke on the redeye, raining solidly, and it continued the entire drive back to Easton. Arriving at home, I found the Kitten full of piss and vinegar at the prospect of braving the elements, but without any of The Kittens on deck, their joy at the prospect had yet to be surveyed. Upon their waking, it turned out that the younger of the two, whose boarding school status was the reason we put off getting the tree in the first place (it was averred that she had insisted on waiting) was as unenthusiastic about the rain as I, but we piled into the car anyway to bring down a mighty douglas fir. Until we got on the road, and the heavens burst forth...at which point my quietly suggested, "maybe we should swing by Lowes and have a look" was quickly accepted by all.

Now, there are those among you who know that there is one thing that tends to cause me more agitation than anything else in the world. And no, it isn't TSA. It is having the foresight to see a problem coming, warning those responsible for its avoidance, and then having them do nothing to mitigate it. Subordinates in the Navy suffered cruel and unusual punishment when this unfortunate chain of events occurred. In this case, while I was self-satisfied, because the change worked to my advantage, I did not get agitated.

Tim and Alexandra, with various well-wishers

The reason for my trip to South Florida was the nuptials of Tim and Alexandra. Tim is a colleague of mine, and I gave his his first job out of college five years ago. At the time, he had a girlfriend of some four years standing (Alexandra), and they made for a lovely couple. They tied the knot this weekend in a perfectly pulled off wedding merging two American families with immigrant roots. Tim's father is American, while his mother is from Venezuela, and Alexandra's parents are both from Venezuela. I am aware of no crimes committed by any of these immigrants. Quite the contrary, they have educated their young in good schools and sent them off to first rate universities. The Mass was conducted in both English and Spanish, and the reception had a decidedly Latin flair.

Some random thoughts:

You know those little reflectors that are sometimes embedded in the highway lines so that one might see them more easily at night? I first saw them at the age of 8 when I drove in my Grandfather's car from the airport to their home in Hollywood. I was mesmerized by them, and I remember saying so to my grandparents. Cut to 42 years later, this very morning as a matter of fact, when I was driving to the airport--and I again saw the reflectors--and had a vivid recall of that very conversation as if it were happening in the car.

The last time I was in this part of the country was the Spring of 2001, when Grandma Crissie died. She had a long life, and her funeral--while sad as funerals generally are--was somewhat lightened by the realization that she was finally to join Andy--her great love--after twenty-three years without him.

Bond, James Bond

TSA remains the bane of my existence. Whether it is a lack of staffing at mealtimes at the San Diego airport--which renders my paid for TSA Pre status moot, or the lack of full body scanners at TSA Pre lines--as was the case this morning--their incompetence runs amok. Here's the issue from this morning. There were two lines--one for TSA Pre--and one for everyone else. Everyone else was ushered to the part of security where there was both a full body scanner and an xray machine. The TSA Pre line had only an xray machine. As my hips are both titanium, I always set off xrays, which then results in the Full Monty from TSA, Pre or otherwise. This leads me to request when I get to security, that I be escorted to the full body scan. This happened this morning, so far so good. On the way there, the surly supervisor began to gesticulate and yell.  "Where are your bags"..I assured him they were on their way through the TSA screen machine. "You need to take your bags with you" he said. I answered that was fine, but would I then get to proceed as a TSA customer--no shoes, computer and liquids in bag, etc.  "No". I said, "sir, I am a Pre-Customer, and you are not making an allowance for me". At which point he became even more direct and surly. And so I said, "ok, let's go through the Pre line Xray.  And I of course set it off, which then resulted in the full body patdown that I was trying to avoid in the first place.  Ridiculous.

I have gained a few pounds, as my new suit(s) (I purchased another of the made to order jobs) are a bit snug. Need to get my act together again. Not a crisis, mind you. Just five pounds or so.

Ok, that's all from here. I am in a sea of humanity at the gate, and soon the Southwest queuing dance will begin.

Nothing Worse Than a Double-Crossing Backstabber!

Is this what our establishment types mean when they say their hands are tied? Is this why we worked so hard to get them elected? 
How about this?

Ok fine. Senator Burr has some weird viewing habits for a STRAIGHT middle-aged white guy. But explain Thom Tillis if you will. 

They think we need more UNSKILLED labor. Our worker participation rate is the lowest since the Carter years, these H-2B jobs are the low skilled, entry level jobs our low skilled and entry level workers NEED to get the ball rolling and Tillis thinks we need to IMPORT these people. 

But everybody tells us we're nuts! We're just crazy or stupid. Let the grownups handle this, Tea Party Wingnuts need not apply. 

Listen very carefully, I'm going to tell you the same thing I would tell a "moderate" Muslim. Don't try to bullshit a bullshitter. I know who you are and what you are, I'm just shocked you can pull the wool over so many people's eyes. I and people like me are coming for you as you have been surreptitiously coming for us for decades. Get ready as I intend to show no mercy. 

Leftist of the Week: Joe Conason

I'm starting a new series called (wait for it) "Leftist of the Week" (week, month, whatever; whenever I feel like it). Many of us have experienced the phenomenon of while discussing an issue with a liberal/leftist, they are completely clueless as to the argument or source of which you as a conservative refer. "Who? What? They said THAT?" This happens to me all the time. The reason is progressives live in a bubble. They VOLUNTARILY avoid non-approved sources of information and vilify those sources (if they're even aware of them) at every opportunity (e.g. Faux News). Plus leftist news/opinion is ubiquitous. Pick up a newspaper or turn on the television and you will encounter it in not only news but in every cultural pursuit low to high. It take no effort to be indoctrinated but it takes a lot of effort to be informed.

I do not wish our side to be ignorant. Therefore I present MSNBC contributor, Salon columnist and virulent Clinton defender Joe Conason. Joe is a born and bred New Yorker the grandson of well known anarchist/communist and publisher (Freie Arbeiter Stimme) Joseph Cohen. I know what you're thinking, no Joe is NOT an Irishman, he's Jewish. Jews for some inexplicable reason often change their names to something, well...more Christian. Don't ask me why. I think it's along the lines of when you ask an Italian about their ethnicity they start telling you about their great-granddad from Perugia or ask an Irishman and they won't shut up about their family in County Kerry. But ask a Jew about their background and they look at you like you've committed the most horrid act of antisemitism since Kristallnacht. Anyway suffice to say Joe is a "red diaper baby" and would rather live his life uncircumcised than leave the cozy confines of Manhattan.

Joe currently resides in a 6,000 sq. ft. Gramercy Park "apartment" with his lovely wife activist attorney and entrepreneur  Elizabeth Wagley (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/16/books/16club.html). It's interesting to note the property has, according to Trulia.com, a market value of $7 million dollars but is appraised for tax purposes at $179,619. Apparently it's good to be a liberal in New York!

As well as his other vocations Joe is a talented propagandist and author. Here are a few of his offerings.

     

So...introducing JOE CONASON. Have fun.

CW Does a Little Testifyin'

From today's testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces.

Insults and Disrespect, NOT a Winning Strategy!

I expect these kinds of attacks from "Hispanic Leaders" Martin O'Malley, Hillary Clinton and Hamas, but I don't expect it from REPUBLICANS! Our intellectually challenged establishment thinks #1 allowing in unscreened Muslims by the thousands is an idea they can live with and #2 attacking Trump for saying EXACTLY what the base is thinking and EXACTLY what needs to be done is good politics. 

Keep it up and you will SEAL YOUR DOOM! If you do succeed in destroying Trump in this way you will drive about 30-40% of Trumps voters back into the arms of the Democrats and you'll alienate a good portion of the Republican base. So keep it up, and if there is a President Hillary it'll be on YOU!