The Russians are Coming!

From today's WaPost:

"Squadron Leaves Port, Bound for Venezuela
A Russian navy squadron set off for Venezuela on Monday, an official said, in a deployment of military power to the Western Hemisphere unseen since the Cold War.
The nuclear-powered Peter the Great cruiser, accompanied by three other ships, sailed from the Northern Fleet's base of Severomorsk, Russian navy spokesman Igor Dygalo said. The ships will cover about 15,000 nautical miles to conduct joint maneuvers with the Venezuelan navy, he said."

Say what you will about the relevance of seapower, but it does my former strategists heart good to see that stories like this are of interest. The movement of fleets is a statement like no other a nation can make, short of armed invasion. That the world's oceans are free for the use of all makes them a highway upon which nations compete for influence. A nation seeking to signal/influence/persuade can do little with its land forces; yet it can create much interest with a deployment of its fleet.

Naval officers like to think that they are greater strategic thinkers than their compatriots in the other services (though I would wager that Army officers actually study strategy and talk about it much more). This is partially a reflection of the diplomatic nature of naval duty, representing the government and the American people wherever the flag is brought. More importantly though, I think it is because we routinely traverse the earth's surface in our operations, moving from geopolitical situation to geopolitical situation. We do not "hunker down" in places for long periods of time, though the repetitive deployments to the Persian Gulf from 1990-2003 seemed to resemble it.

If I know my Navy, this deployment of Russian ships has been well studied and planned for, and highly classified guidance has been created, vetted with the Geographic Commanders and distributed to our Naval commanders. The Russian fleet is likely to traverse the areas of responsibility of three separate numbered fleets...the 6th (Med/Eastlant), the 2nd (Westlant) and the 4th (Carib). A highly sophisticated series of information operations, surveillance operations, and influence operations---coordinated across the breadth of this Russian fleet's travels--will greet them as they sail.

The Russian Fleet is a shadow of its former self, and it may turn out that our most effective Naval response will be to pay it no heed at all. But I assure you, if that course of action is chosen, it will have been after a great deal of discussion.