We had a good time live-blogging last night's debate, a debate that I found to be the most substantive one yet. Michele Bachman was on fire, tearing into Newt with great impact. Newt was alternately brilliant and rambling. Santorum was strong, and I think his numbers in Iowa could surprise. Huntsman just does not connect with me for some reason. Ron Paul is just out there. Rick Perry had his best debate yet.My man? Mitt did well...very well.
Here's how it plays out in Iowa--you heard it here first:
1. Ron Paul--28%
2. Mitt Romney--25%
3. Newt Gingrich--24%
4. Rick Santorum-- 8%
5. Michele Bachman--7%
6. Rick Perry--6%
7 Jon Huntsman--1%
8. Others-- 1%
Ron Paul will win because he's got committed volunteers and it is a caucus state. College kids home from break will saturate the state and give him a "Pat Buchanan"-like victory.
Romney will beat Gingrich. Folks will spend holiday meals among friends and family talking about the two men, and Newt will simply not digest as well as Mitt.
Santorum will surprise in Iowa. He'll be able to claim a "victory" and then assume the "anti-Mitt" mantle.
Bachman, Perry, and Huntsman are out after Iowa.
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3 comments:
I've heard rumblings for weeks that Bachmann was high on his (Romney) list for VP. I think guys like me ( you know, self made scumbags devoid of compassion for the underclass) could easily support that ticket.
Perry has money to go on for a little while, plans a blitz in Iowa, and just may do better than you think. Though I won't put any money on it. Newt's going to be losing altitude over the next two weeks and his followers have to go somewhere. I think it is Santorum that will drop out. And Huntsman's put all his eggs in New Hampshire's basket, there's no way he's getting out until after that primary.
I think it is Bachmann who will surprise in Iowa, and will end up in the top 3.
But Hammer, no way is she going to end up on the ticket. Not when Rubio and Bob McDonnell and a handful of others are far more attractive choices. Why did Nicky Haley endorse Romney today? Maybe she's a possibility.
Actually I think the insight of the week was Ben Stein's observation that the Huntsman-Gingrich Lincoln-Douglas was the best political discussion he had seen in years and that this should be the ticket with newt in the Leand and Huntsman as VP. With Bolton at State, Woolsey at Defense, Bachman at Justice, and Romney at Commerce, it would be the dream ticket.
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