Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Technical Issues
My apologies to those frustrated in my silence today (besides me). Our ridiculous villa here in Jamaica lost its internet for an interminable period. I am frightened by how addicted I've become to this medium.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
The Press Covering Itself Again.....
I'm a reasonably well-informed fellow, I have a great deal of interest in the world around me, there are a diverse number of things that interest me and I really do think the Washington Post is a quality newspaper. That said, I simply cannot stand the fact that it (along with much of the rest of the press) delights in covering stories with front-page importance that mean little or nothing to anyone outside the newspaper business. Who gives a crap who the editor of the Washington Post is? Was there no serious news going on anywhere in the world to which the precious front-page space could be allocated? Again, this is not the standard knee-jerk conservative rant about the liberal tilt of the mainstream media. This is a very focused criticism of a profession with a bit of an ego problem.
The Third Rail
It seems that what George Bush started, neither candidate can stop--actual planning to reform social security. It is high time this trend flowers. For too long, a system conceived in the
Depression to provide a lifeline to the truly needy elderly, has come to be seen as just another middle class entitlement. The system is seriously broken, with fewer and fewer people to pay in and more and more people taking out. Several steps must be taken, and it appears both candidates are talking about them, though neither seems to have a coherent whole.
The first thing to be done is to re-brand the system. Too many people view Social Security as a pension plan...and it is not. It should never be seen as anything but a supplement to retirement saving.
The age of benefit receipt must be raised. We are living longer, and the system must be periodically adjusted to reflect this fact. Whenever I hear people talking about how this would trap people in horrible jobs longer, I return to my first point....social security is not a pension plan.
Benefits should be means tested. Well-off seniors should not receive full benefits. The continuing fiction that social security has support because it is not "welfare" is completely undercut by the fact that a growing number of beneficiaries lives on social security so long that they vastly outstrip (plus interest) what they had paid in.
Stopping the payroll tax at $102K should end (horror of horrors, I'm advocating a tax increase). But every dollar taxed above $102K should have the ability to be invested in a personal retirement account. Additionally, those making under $102K should have the option of investing some of their money in a personal account.
Social Security is worth saving, if it is reformed. If not, then it will fail. Fact is, whenever I sit down with advisers to talk about retirement, I always tell them to eliminate Social Security from the planning. It is easier to plan that way....
Depression to provide a lifeline to the truly needy elderly, has come to be seen as just another middle class entitlement. The system is seriously broken, with fewer and fewer people to pay in and more and more people taking out. Several steps must be taken, and it appears both candidates are talking about them, though neither seems to have a coherent whole.
The first thing to be done is to re-brand the system. Too many people view Social Security as a pension plan...and it is not. It should never be seen as anything but a supplement to retirement saving.
The age of benefit receipt must be raised. We are living longer, and the system must be periodically adjusted to reflect this fact. Whenever I hear people talking about how this would trap people in horrible jobs longer, I return to my first point....social security is not a pension plan.
Benefits should be means tested. Well-off seniors should not receive full benefits. The continuing fiction that social security has support because it is not "welfare" is completely undercut by the fact that a growing number of beneficiaries lives on social security so long that they vastly outstrip (plus interest) what they had paid in.
Stopping the payroll tax at $102K should end (horror of horrors, I'm advocating a tax increase). But every dollar taxed above $102K should have the ability to be invested in a personal retirement account. Additionally, those making under $102K should have the option of investing some of their money in a personal account.
Social Security is worth saving, if it is reformed. If not, then it will fail. Fact is, whenever I sit down with advisers to talk about retirement, I always tell them to eliminate Social Security from the planning. It is easier to plan that way....
Monday, July 7, 2008
The Writing of Paul Theroux
The great shame of my life (or one of them at least) is that while I have read a great many books, I am not well read. I had not read Lolita until just a few years ago, I only got around to Catcher in the Rye last year (hated it!), and I have not read anything by V.S. Naipaul.
Recently, I have begun to try and address this problem, and I intend to work on it for the remainder of my years. My girlfriend, who is indeed well-read had a book of short stories by Paul Theroux hanging around as we packed for this trip. I decided to throw it into my bag for kicks, and I am glad I did. Apparently a novelist and travel writer, the volume I have isn't so much full of short stories as it is a compendium of magazine articles submitted over the course of twenty years, from the mid-sixties until the mid-eighties. During this time, Theroux held two main jobs, teacher and writer--sometimes at the same time. Some of the best writing is about his time as an expat in Africa and Indonesia, especially his thoughts on what it was like to be a white man in Central Africa in the mid-60's.
I heartily commend his work to those of you who have not yet enjoyed it.
Recently, I have begun to try and address this problem, and I intend to work on it for the remainder of my years. My girlfriend, who is indeed well-read had a book of short stories by Paul Theroux hanging around as we packed for this trip. I decided to throw it into my bag for kicks, and I am glad I did. Apparently a novelist and travel writer, the volume I have isn't so much full of short stories as it is a compendium of magazine articles submitted over the course of twenty years, from the mid-sixties until the mid-eighties. During this time, Theroux held two main jobs, teacher and writer--sometimes at the same time. Some of the best writing is about his time as an expat in Africa and Indonesia, especially his thoughts on what it was like to be a white man in Central Africa in the mid-60's.
I heartily commend his work to those of you who have not yet enjoyed it.
Weapons Costs Spiral
Story in this morning's paper about how several big-ticket weapon systems are greatly over-running initial cost estimates. I have seen this issue up close, and it is definitely a problem. More correctly, it is a series of problems.
First, there's the requirements definition process. Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines) buy things...it really is one of their chief functions. Service requirements definition processes aren't too far off from what many have gone through when they try to build a house....lots of changes to the plan, and each of those changes costs more money. Because it takes so long for many of these systems to mature, changes in technology greatly outstrip the capacity to deliver the capability. New toy comes along and folks want it included.
Next there's the contracting process itself. More oversight must be placed on the front end, ensuring that the cost data developers put forward is actually attainable. There's an uneasy relationship between the service program managers who really, really want to field the capability, and the contractors who really, really want to build. Both have a vested interest in keeping cost figures as low as possible, at least until you've reached a point of no return.
Finally, there's a leadership problem. Very few people ever get fired because their program had cost over-runs. Oh sure, every now and then the egregious offenders get sacked. But for every program manager whose firing makes it into the press, there are dozens more who have lorded over programs with cost over-runs that just don't make it to the eye-popping level.
This is fixable, but it will take time and leadership.
First, there's the requirements definition process. Services (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines) buy things...it really is one of their chief functions. Service requirements definition processes aren't too far off from what many have gone through when they try to build a house....lots of changes to the plan, and each of those changes costs more money. Because it takes so long for many of these systems to mature, changes in technology greatly outstrip the capacity to deliver the capability. New toy comes along and folks want it included.
Next there's the contracting process itself. More oversight must be placed on the front end, ensuring that the cost data developers put forward is actually attainable. There's an uneasy relationship between the service program managers who really, really want to field the capability, and the contractors who really, really want to build. Both have a vested interest in keeping cost figures as low as possible, at least until you've reached a point of no return.
Finally, there's a leadership problem. Very few people ever get fired because their program had cost over-runs. Oh sure, every now and then the egregious offenders get sacked. But for every program manager whose firing makes it into the press, there are dozens more who have lorded over programs with cost over-runs that just don't make it to the eye-popping level.
This is fixable, but it will take time and leadership.
Asians: The Minority That Doesn't Matter
Apparently, the prestigious Thomas Jefferson High School in Fairfax County, Virginia will have a plurality of Asian students in its next entering class. Bully for them. While various ethnic and racial victimization groups continue to point to phantoms of ongoing systemic discrimination, the Asian community does what it does best--quietly clean everyone else's clocks. Strong families, an emphasis on education, and dedication to success in the marketplace are all hallmarks of America's various Asian communities, and these are values for all Americans to celebrate.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Air Travel
I may be forced in the light of accumulated experience to deviate from free-market principles. I've decided that if you really wish to fly well, you must fly government sponsored carriers. I can't really be sure why American carriers can't seem to make money (except Southwest, whose success remains a beacon of hope to me), but when it comes to my flying comfort, I'll take a carrier with funding from central governments any time! I've flown Air Jamaica a few times recently and found it to be efficient, well-run, and well-staffed. The flight attendants seem aware that they aren't really there for our safety, but to serve us good meals and drinks. Additionally, there are plenty of them and they are generally young and attractive. Reminds me a bit of a Caribbean version of Cathay Pacific....
A few pet peeves in air travel, if you will. The first is, again, flight attendants. I have flown literally hundreds of thousands of miles, if not in the millions, in my day. I have never needed the assistance of a flight attendant for my "safety". I have however, needed them countless times to bring me a pillow, a Diet Coke, or a pencil. These are the skills I value in air staff, and the airline that reinforces them (as opposed to this attempt at flight attendant self-esteem in deeming them essential to my safety) will get my business every time.
Another peeve of mine is the fellow behind you who seems incapable of extricating himself from his seat without pulling on the headrest in front of him...which also happens to be supporting your head. After raising his frame, he releases the headrest causing a brief but notable forward movement and backward acceleration of your head. Are there no armrests upon which to push? Should we install pneumatic lifts to aid these poor souls?
Enough whining. I told you I was a curmudgeon.
A few pet peeves in air travel, if you will. The first is, again, flight attendants. I have flown literally hundreds of thousands of miles, if not in the millions, in my day. I have never needed the assistance of a flight attendant for my "safety". I have however, needed them countless times to bring me a pillow, a Diet Coke, or a pencil. These are the skills I value in air staff, and the airline that reinforces them (as opposed to this attempt at flight attendant self-esteem in deeming them essential to my safety) will get my business every time.
Another peeve of mine is the fellow behind you who seems incapable of extricating himself from his seat without pulling on the headrest in front of him...which also happens to be supporting your head. After raising his frame, he releases the headrest causing a brief but notable forward movement and backward acceleration of your head. Are there no armrests upon which to push? Should we install pneumatic lifts to aid these poor souls?
Enough whining. I told you I was a curmudgeon.
Death of Jesse Helms
There is a good bit of memorializing going on in the conservative press at the death of Jesse Helms. I have been asked elsewhere in this blog for my own thoughts on his passing, and they follow.
Jesse Helms was not my kind of conservative. Though I'm sure he and I shared some elements of ideology, I very rarely heard him express them in words or in a manner in which I would have felt comfortable. He was a bully, he did not appear to possess an intellect worthy of note, but he was apparently a successful politician.
I will leave further memorializing to those who felt warmly about him.
Jesse Helms was not my kind of conservative. Though I'm sure he and I shared some elements of ideology, I very rarely heard him express them in words or in a manner in which I would have felt comfortable. He was a bully, he did not appear to possess an intellect worthy of note, but he was apparently a successful politician.
I will leave further memorializing to those who felt warmly about him.
A Little Slow This Week
Filing dispatches this week from a little vacation spot in Jamaica, where we (sig other and her two kids) have gone while my lovely lady recovers from recent surgery. She is fine, thanks for asking.
She has however, begun to suspect that this "blogging" thing might be taking up a wee bit too much time. In order to allay her fears, I have promised balance while we are here.
She has however, begun to suspect that this "blogging" thing might be taking up a wee bit too much time. In order to allay her fears, I have promised balance while we are here.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
DC Schools
I've always seen the DC schools chief as a dream job, a chance to break a lot of china while doing some important work. Current DC Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee is doing quite a bit of that. She has incredible topcover from Mayor Fenty, an amazing amount of energy, and a take-no-prisoners demeanor that I think the job requires.
There are some incredibly entrenched interests there who oppose her, but I remain hopeful Ms. Rhee can succeed. The DC school system is a disgrace, and those who wish to pour more money into education need only look at the poor return on investment the nation's capital gets on the second highest per student spending in the country.
There are some incredibly entrenched interests there who oppose her, but I remain hopeful Ms. Rhee can succeed. The DC school system is a disgrace, and those who wish to pour more money into education need only look at the poor return on investment the nation's capital gets on the second highest per student spending in the country.
Mugabe and National Interest
The morning paper has a nice inside story on how Robert Mugabe engineered (with a great deal of help) his recent election "victory" in Zimbabwe. This man is evil, he is a criminal, he and his band of thugs have taken a country poised for success at its colonial handover and driven it into the ground.
But what should the US role here be? Should we lead the chorus of international disgust? Yes. Should we initiate sanctions and other economic weapons to weaken his rule? Yes. Should we provide any and all technical and intelligence assistance to an indigenous effort to overthrow him? Yes.
But this is as far as we should go. Our interests must continue to drive our foreign policy. We have little or no interest in Zimbabwe, aside from humanitarian. I am unconvinced that the humanitarian case here is worth American blood. It is certainly worth African blood and the blood of the colonial powers who birthed the failed and failing states all over that continent.
There are of course, situations where humanitarian questions transcend simple matters of emotion. The Balkan Wars in the early 90's are an excellent case, as the Balkan States have always been a strategically tender area. Where West and East meet, one World War started here and a Cold War found great purchase here. Our actions there were warranted, especially in light of European fecklessness.
Zimbabwe does not rise to this level of strategic importance.
But what should the US role here be? Should we lead the chorus of international disgust? Yes. Should we initiate sanctions and other economic weapons to weaken his rule? Yes. Should we provide any and all technical and intelligence assistance to an indigenous effort to overthrow him? Yes.
But this is as far as we should go. Our interests must continue to drive our foreign policy. We have little or no interest in Zimbabwe, aside from humanitarian. I am unconvinced that the humanitarian case here is worth American blood. It is certainly worth African blood and the blood of the colonial powers who birthed the failed and failing states all over that continent.
There are of course, situations where humanitarian questions transcend simple matters of emotion. The Balkan Wars in the early 90's are an excellent case, as the Balkan States have always been a strategically tender area. Where West and East meet, one World War started here and a Cold War found great purchase here. Our actions there were warranted, especially in light of European fecklessness.
Zimbabwe does not rise to this level of strategic importance.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Watching Obama Move to the Right....
Senator Obama is moving predictably to the right on the issue of the Iraq war and Charles Krauthammer is on the job to call him on it.
Barak Obama is revealing himself to be a cynical and opportunistic politician, tacking to the right now that he has the primaries under his belt and the left-wing of his party mollified. His moves bespeak a man un-anchored in anything more permanent than a desire to win the Presidency...and they are also the actions of perhaps the most talented politician of our time. We could be in deep trouble--this guy really knows how to move.
Barak Obama is revealing himself to be a cynical and opportunistic politician, tacking to the right now that he has the primaries under his belt and the left-wing of his party mollified. His moves bespeak a man un-anchored in anything more permanent than a desire to win the Presidency...and they are also the actions of perhaps the most talented politician of our time. We could be in deep trouble--this guy really knows how to move.
Crotchety Old-Man Update
Ok, as I indicated on the very first day of blogging here, I'm a bit of a curmudgeon. Things sometimes tend to irritate me that would pass quickly by others of more a more tolerant mien. That said, whilst traveling to the Eastern Shore yesterday, I and several thousand of my closest friends, had the opportunity to sit...stopped in 90 plus degree traffic...while Prince George's County Maryland police effectively closed portions of I-95, I-495 and Route 50. This action was taken in order that the head-of-state-like funeral procession for a slain PG county policeman could proceed from his police station, to the fire station where he volunteered, to his final resting place. Let's get the important part out of the way; I am unhappy that a fine, family man was murdered by a miscreant. I believe his comrades were on the right side of things by wishing to solemnify his service. But closing major interstate highways on the afternoon prior to the July 4th three day weekend so that an amazingly over the top procession of police cars, motorcycles, fire trucks and county vehicles could proceed untrammeled by interaction with the hoi-polloi on its way to its homes...constitutes a serious lack of judgment and abuse of power and authority by the police.
The Declaration of Independence
I read recently where Bill Kristol of The Weekly Standard attends a cookout each July 4th at which the host reads aloud the Declaration of Independence. Thinking this a wonderful idea, I took to my computer this morning to read this document anew. I highly recommend taking the time to read this remarkable piece of political thought. If you're reading this blog regularly (thank you!), your knowledge of history surely provides you with the understanding that the 13 original colonies fought hard prior to the Declaration to remain subjects of the Crown. Reading over the bill of indictment that makes up the largest part of the document, one cannot help but be reminded of the abidingly conservative nature of that revolution. It was a revolution undertaken to preserve rights already possessed. Whenever you hear George Washington compared to some tinhorn, left-wing revolutionary dedicated to the overthrow of an established order, remember that George Washington started out simply wanting the established order to be enforced. Happy Fourth of July, fellow citizens.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Democrats and Veterans
One key trend in modern Democratic politics is the wholesale embrace of Veterans and Veterans issues.
By taking up the cause of caring for "...him who shall have borne the battle..." Democrats seek to gain credit for being "pro-military", something that most of the American public seems to be these days. But dig a little deeper, and Democratic embrace of Veterans issues is not the same thing as support for the military. In fact, Veterans are a key potential constituency for Democrats, occupying they do a position of dependency on the government (a valuable trait for potential Democratic voters). I am a retired Veteran, and I am (at times) a little embarrassed at the largess extended me in my dotage. A healthy pension, mostly free medical care, commissary privileges, access to the VA medical system, and a full menu of VA education, financial, and training benefits are just some of the wondrous emoluments of my status.
But larding the gravy train for Vets is NOT the same as supporting our people in uniform. That means so much more. It means providing them with the equipment they need to do their jobs...not just the popular stuff like up-armored HUMVEES and enhanced body armor...but the ships, planes, tanks and systems designed to support them. It means supporting the effort to undermine our enemies by providing our intelligence services with the tools they need to do their jobs, including enhanced surveillance. And it means...more than anything else...public support for winning the war they are in, not the one politicians would want them to be in.
By taking up the cause of caring for "...him who shall have borne the battle..." Democrats seek to gain credit for being "pro-military", something that most of the American public seems to be these days. But dig a little deeper, and Democratic embrace of Veterans issues is not the same thing as support for the military. In fact, Veterans are a key potential constituency for Democrats, occupying they do a position of dependency on the government (a valuable trait for potential Democratic voters). I am a retired Veteran, and I am (at times) a little embarrassed at the largess extended me in my dotage. A healthy pension, mostly free medical care, commissary privileges, access to the VA medical system, and a full menu of VA education, financial, and training benefits are just some of the wondrous emoluments of my status.
But larding the gravy train for Vets is NOT the same as supporting our people in uniform. That means so much more. It means providing them with the equipment they need to do their jobs...not just the popular stuff like up-armored HUMVEES and enhanced body armor...but the ships, planes, tanks and systems designed to support them. It means supporting the effort to undermine our enemies by providing our intelligence services with the tools they need to do their jobs, including enhanced surveillance. And it means...more than anything else...public support for winning the war they are in, not the one politicians would want them to be in.
Great News from Colombia
Looks like the Colombians pulled off an imaginative operation....good for them. I love the part about the Faux-FARC members wearing Che Guevara T-shirts. After all, what could possibly better establish your credentials as a left-wing revolutionary than wearing Che T-shirts! As I write this, I am wearing a T-shirt with an iconic Che-Like image of Ronald Reagan....around the image are the words "Old School Conservative".
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Income Tax Burden
Let's have a little tax chat, shall we? Take a look at this report showing how the income tax burden is distributed in our country. The "graduated" tax was instituted to be "fair"; that is, so that higher income earners would pay a higher percentage of their income to the government. I'd be surprised if most folks in our country really knew how those taxes were distributed.
A few simple truths: the top 1% earners in our country pay a dollar value in taxes greater than that contributed by the bottom 90%. The top 10% of wage earners...defined in 2007 as those making over $103,912 paid 70.3% of the total tax bill in this country. The bottom 50% of wage earners in the United States paid--get this--3.07% of the nation's income tax bill.
Now I know, income taxes are not the only taxes people pay. Payroll (Social Security, etc) taxes make up a sizable portion of monies deducted from our checks each month, and these taxes are levied equally on income (up to a certain level).
But the next time you hear a politician talking about the rich paying their fair share...think about two questions: What do they consider rich, and how much more is fair?
A few simple truths: the top 1% earners in our country pay a dollar value in taxes greater than that contributed by the bottom 90%. The top 10% of wage earners...defined in 2007 as those making over $103,912 paid 70.3% of the total tax bill in this country. The bottom 50% of wage earners in the United States paid--get this--3.07% of the nation's income tax bill.
Now I know, income taxes are not the only taxes people pay. Payroll (Social Security, etc) taxes make up a sizable portion of monies deducted from our checks each month, and these taxes are levied equally on income (up to a certain level).
But the next time you hear a politician talking about the rich paying their fair share...think about two questions: What do they consider rich, and how much more is fair?
Democrats, the Filthy Rich, and Obama
What is it about really rich people that seems in many cases to pre-dispose them to support of Democrats in general and Senator Obama in particular? Isn't it common knowledge that Democrats seek to redistribute wealth and most of the fiscal policies that Senator Obama espouses levy a heavy burden on the rich? Why do so many of the truly wealthy seem to vote so overwhelmingly against their own interests?
The answer is surprisingly simple. Because the truly rich are indeed so rich, there are no such things as "pocketbook" issues to them. They simply have so much money that there are very few foreseeable options that the federal government could undertake to divest them of their wealth that would actually make a meaningful difference in the way they live their lives. They care not if the capital gains rate is 15%, 25%, or 35%. Because social security represents a rounding error in their monthly cash flow, that which is deducted for it is even less significant, whether it is the first $97K of income or that above $250K. Their wealth insulates them from the issues that the rest of us find important. What does this insulation bring them? Why, the freedom to be socially conscious, of course, a luxury many of us are unable to afford.
The answer is surprisingly simple. Because the truly rich are indeed so rich, there are no such things as "pocketbook" issues to them. They simply have so much money that there are very few foreseeable options that the federal government could undertake to divest them of their wealth that would actually make a meaningful difference in the way they live their lives. They care not if the capital gains rate is 15%, 25%, or 35%. Because social security represents a rounding error in their monthly cash flow, that which is deducted for it is even less significant, whether it is the first $97K of income or that above $250K. Their wealth insulates them from the issues that the rest of us find important. What does this insulation bring them? Why, the freedom to be socially conscious, of course, a luxury many of us are unable to afford.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Barack Obama Defends His Patriotism
This story in this morning's paper has me a little ticked. I receive the scurrilous email rumors detailing Senator Obama's various offenses against our country all the time....things like....wants to change the National Anthem, why he doesn't wear a flag lapel pin, that he is a practicing Muslim (or even worse, some kind of Islamofascist Mole)....This tripe is manufactured and purveyed by incredibly small-minded people, people whose participation in the political process is really quite regrettable. Senator Barack Obama is a good man, a smart man, from all appearances a good husband and father, and a gifted politician. These attacks are silly and are beneath contempt. Senator Obama provides us with more than enough ammunition to attack his candidacy through his bad policy ideas and his total lack of experience on the grand stage. Let's keep the battle going on those lines.
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