Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Did Trump Lose Virginia?

I gaze upon the politics of my beloved Commonwealth of Virginia only occasionally these days, convinced its proximity to Uncle Sugar and the gravy train that provides means it will only be a matter of time until it is a mirror image of the People's State of Maryland where I live. A slate of Democrats won election to Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, and potentially flipped enough seats in the House of Delegates (or "House of Elegants" as I once heard it referred to) to turn it to Democratic control. The media--enamored of horse races as it is--seems convinced that this is a referendum on Trump and Trumpism. I'm inclined to believe there was a whiff of backlash to Trump in what we see, but I'm not yet ready to suggest there is a full blown electoral rejection underway. Some things to remember:

--The three Democrats who won last night are replacing....three Democrats
--The two Senators in the state are -- Democrats
--Hillary Clinton won the state by five points in 2016

My point is that any Republican running statewide in Virginia has a tough row to hoe in Virginia these days. That said, doing so IS tougher in the age of Trump, where it seems the internecine battle within the GOP seems likely to work to the benefit of Democrats who appear sane and tempered.

The doubling down on Trump is already underway by the President's legions of propagandists, starting with the President himself last night with this classic example of Trumpist douchebaggery after the race in VA was called:

Baghdad Bob has nothing on this guy.

So am I saying all is well in GOP-land, that a blue state voted blue and there is little more to be discerned from this?  No. Not at all.

Hillary won the State by 5 in November 2016, but Northam won it by 8 over Gillespie, a guy who nearly unseated the incumbent Mark Warner in the 2014 Senate Race.

White, college educated voters (a category Trump actually won in 2016) appeared to reject the GOP candidate in VA.

And what should be most worrisome of all to the GOP is that the House of Delegates--which was overwhelmingly Republican, may in fact flip to Democrat pending a number of recounts.

As I brushed my teeth before bed last night, I thought to myself how disappointed I would once have been in what happened in Virginia last night. I felt no joy, but I was not disappointed. Something is happening on the right, and I'm not exactly sure where it is going. I know where I hope it will go--and that is an utter repudiation of Donald Trump but a party that is more attuned to what created him. In order for this to happen, a blue state voting blue is not going to be enough. We're a year away from the real referendum on the Presidency, one that I hope will unshackle cowardly Republican legislators from the corpse of Trump and Trumpism and lead to the re-emergence of a right of center party of ideas, as opposed to the current photo-negative of the emotionalism of the left. We shall see.

1 comment:

"The Hammer" said...

Virginia was lost by the GOP forever when they refused to back Ken Cuccinelli in 2014. You may recall the Dems made a fairly substantial late media buy and the RNC refused to help the REPUBLICAN NOMINEE. The result? Clinton acolyte Terry McAuliffe (perhaps the dirtiest, sleaziest, fund raiser hanger-on since Bobby Baker) gave about 250k convicted felons the right to vote and lo and behold, Hillary won by 212k. So there you go. Had this not happened Trump may very well have won Virginia.

But Tuesday's election was a win win for the establishment. If the GOPe loses the Dems scream it was a repudiation of Tumpism. If the Republicans win they would have said it's a repudiation of Trumpism and they don't need him to win. There is only ONE establishment and they ALWAYS win, unless there's a Trump.

The fact is NO Republican will ever win Virginia again, it has gone California. Illegal immigration, felons voting and a very efficient machine much like we have in some counties in North Carolina have seen to that.

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