Friday, January 1, 2016

The Official TigerHawk Predictions for 2016

We're not sure what the rules are, but predictions seem to be a "thing" around here. Well, here are a few, audacious and otherwise, verifiable, or not, wishful thinking, or not.

1. Marco Rubio will win the Republican nomination for president, and become the first actually young GOP nominee since Thomas E. Dewey in 1944 [Corrected per comments below], beyond the memory of virtually all living Americans. The era of pharty old dudes will come to an end, for better or for worse. Youth has the potential to matter a lot, because legal weed initiatives will drive the youth-social libertarian turnout in several key states. See #13 below.

2. The Iowa Hawkeyes will win the Rose Bowl this afternoon, but will not cover the spread (now standing at 6 points). Note that the shelf life of this prediction is about 9 hours.

3. UVA won't do any of that stuff CW predicts, even if it would make the TigerHawk nephews very happy.

4. Barack Obama will "use his pen" to issue an executive order on guns, and it will cost the Democrats at least one swing state: Colorado, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.

5. I will weigh not more than 205 pounds on December 31, 2016 (202 today).

6. Against expectations, Ted Cruz will campaign aggressively and positively for the GOP nominee (even if #1 is wrong), he will mend as many fences with Republican Senators as possible, and will be on the short list for Attorney General if the Republicans win in November. Once they wake up and realize Cruz's true talent, conservatives will want to put him in a position for eventual nomination to the SCOTUS when Antonin Scalia retires.

7. ISIS will be substantially weaker by the end of the year, and may even recede as a GOP talking point by Labor Day.

8. Barack Obama will not be invited to campaign for the Democratic nominee, who will probably be Hillary Clinton, with the possible exception of events devised to promote African-American turnout.

9. Nobody will "steal" the presidential election, just as nobody has done in the history of the United States (no, not in 1960 or 2000, either).

10. Immigration, legal and otherwise, will continue to be a huge issue in the general election, and the Democratic nominee will visibly tack to the center. Pundits will agree that Donald Trump gets the credit or the blame for this, but news of the migration crisis in Europe will make even American liberals pause.

11. Donald Trump will neither win the nomination nor run as an independent, but he will suck up a "huge" amount of air time at the Republican convention and have a "huge" impact on the platform, such as it is. He will not campaign for the GOP nominee, and will say things during the general election that the Republicans will have to delicately disavow.

12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will crack 20,000 during the year, but close below. Oil prices will continue to languish.

13. The legal weed movement will hit a tipping point in 2016, with blue, purple and even red states in the mix. This will drive turnout among the young social libertarians, including in must-win Ohio and swinger Nevada. Not only will this force the GOP nominee to take a dovish position on weed, but it will drive social conservative issues (which are unpopular among millennials) in to the background no matter who the Republican candidate is.

14. The inequality issue will continue to loom large (as it should). Because the weed-driven youth turnout will be a huge wild card, the Republicans will emphasize "opportunity" rather than tax cutting in their rhetoric. This will be especially important and especially likely if Rubio is at the top of the ticket.

15. Hillary Clinton will not be indicted in 2016. CW is a year early on this one. However, if Ted Cruz realizes my aspirations for him and becomes Attorney General in 2017, look out!

Of course, your results may vary.


"The Hammer" said...

Hope Rubio fairs better than the Hawkeyes: Stanford 35 Iowa zippity do da at the half.

TigerHawk said...

The perils of predicting the outcome of imminent events.

JimB said... prediction has turned out to be woefully wrong. Stanford over Iowa.
Want me to go through the list and anti-prophecy on some of the others?

JimB said... prediction has turned out to be woefully wrong. Stanford over Iowa.
Want me to go through the list and anti-prophecy on some of the others?

Ozomatli Crüe said...

Rubio will be 45 on election day '16. Nixon was 47 on election day '60.

This all makes sense. I stopped being young when I turned 46.

aramkr said...

Kennedy didn't steal the 1960 election. He paid cash.

Anonymous said...

I predict that the word "libertarian" will become even more watered down than it is already (unfortunately). "Social libertarians"? That is an absolutely meaningless term.

TigerHawk said...

Nixon was never "young," no matter his chronological age. But good point.

Bluepike said...

Dig out your copy of Simon and Garfunkel's "Silent Night/Nightly News" and play only the channel with the news broadcast. Remember the recording was made in ca.1967. Nixon comments are fascinating.

Georg Felis said...

Hm. You predict the stock market will rise by 15% during a time of QE reduction and several grossly overpriced markets. I would be more willing to bet the stock market will drop ten percent over the same period.

Bobby Caygeon said...

Iowa was the dog so, to win, by definition they had to cover.

ballyfager said...

Dewey was not the nominee in 1940. Wendell Wilkie was. Being wrong about the past does not inspire confidence in your predictions.

Unknown said...

Director Hoover had a meeting about what to do re: Kennedy's theft of the election. They offered to go to bat for Nixon if he sued. Nixon declined, because he thought it would be bad for the country. None of this is secret. It's just something Democrats prefer to forget.

The claim that it didn't happen is revisionist and wrong. Fortunately for cosmic justice, the incompetent, womanizing thief got what he deserved.

TigerHawk said...

Dang, I wrote "Willkie" and then thought to check Dewey, but forgot to change the date. Corrected.

"The Hammer" said...

Forget Chicago, what about Texas? There was more voter fraud and ballot box stuffing than you can shake a stick at. LBJ delivered Texas alright.

bart simpsonson said...

9. What about the 2008 election? And possibly (probably) the 2012? I believe they were stolen by vote fraud, voter fraud, counting fraud, hacking fraud, registration fraud. And possible some elections before those.

13. The end result of the legal weed movement, US-wide, will at some time in the foreseeable future, be used to create lists of people who will not be allowed to purchase, own, keep, store, or particularly, use guns, whether pistols or long guns. For any purpose. At any time. Ever. The Ruling Class is biding their time right now as they await the ever-increasing size of said lists...MARK MY WORDS.

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