Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Obama Threads the Needle

I've had a night upon which my subconscious mind could feed on the President's speech, and I've come to conclude that he's done about as well as he possibly could, given the incredible and diverse interests at play in the war in Afghanistan.

1. He campaigned that Afghanistan was the central front in the war on terror. His plan announced last night is entirely consistent with that view. The anti-war crowd who will invariably rise up to oppose this will claim to have been abandoned by the President, but there's simply nothing to that. He was against the war in Iraq (and the successful surge). He's never been against the war in Afghanistan.

2. By putting a timer (18 mos) on the commitment, he's made a strategic (military) error. That said, his ability to gain the votes in his own party necessary to secure the funding for this commitment dictated the move--which is after all, a strategic (political) decision. His calculation is that the center right will support the increased effort and bitch about the conditions--but not enough to walk away from him. Additionally, he sees the center left complaining about the increased effort but applauding the conditions. The far left and the far right--neither of whom will agree with this plan (too much or too little), won't amount to much of anything.

3. By taking the time to think McChrystal's plan through--and then amending it--Obama demonstrated to the uniforms that he will not be a rubber stamp and that he will do what I believe the Founders intended the President to do--exercise leadership. McChrystal came forward with his best military advice. Ultimately, even if Obama agreed with it, he cannot fund it without Congress (the genius of our Founders, again). Therefore, Obama has to weave the strategic military and strategic political pictures together--hence--fewer troops, with a time stop.

All in all, I remain convinced that the President deserves support on this.

4 comments:

Goldwater's Ghost said...

Sure he threaded it, but it remains to be seen as to whether he can sew a shirt. On this, I am doubtful.

"The Hammer" said...

Nice analysis, but it's still a recipe for defeat.

Mudge said...

I agree that we should support the President on this (and I do). He made a decision that I believe was, in general, consistent with what we conservatives expect of our Commander in Chief. But given he felt compelled by Congress to insert what you have identified as a "strategic (military) error" into the war plans our troops must go execute is something we conservatives should hammer those legislators on from today until Nov 2010. And in so doing, we should also make clear to the Commander in Chief that he has the latitude, and new Congressional support, to abandon that strategic military error.

Anonymous said...

You career ex-military guys insist on giving Obaba the benefit of the doubt. I don't. And the reason is I don't think he's got his mind right. He's interested in getting out as soon as possible with as little political damage as possible. I think this is a split the baby decision that is a waste of time, resources and lives.

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