Monday, December 28, 2015

The Hammer's 2016 Election Predictions

  1. Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucuses on February 1st. No one will drop out.
  2. Eight days later Donald Trump will squeeze out a narrow victory in New Hampshire which will force most of the weaker candidates to quit. Cruz, Rubio, Christie and Bush stay in. Jeb will receive less than 4% of the vote and be under tremendous pressure to do well in South Carolina. 
  3. Trump will win South Carolina by nearly 20 points resulting in Christie dropping out. Cruz will have a respectable outing but Bush and Rubio will be hanging by a thread hoping to do well on Super Tuesday. 
  4. Trump runs the table on Super Tuesday apart from Colorado (Rubio), Virginia (Bush) and Alaska (Cruz). 
  5. Everyone hangs around until March 15 when Trump wins North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and most importantly Florida (by 20 points). Rubio and Bush drop out. It becomes a two man race with Trump in a commanding position. 
  6. Cruz does respectably well but it's an uphill battle. Trump wins the nomination. 
  7. Senator Ted Cruz makes the ticket. 
  8. Hillary breezes to the nomination in spite of the relentless attacks from Team Trump. Bill Clinton proves to be a weak campaigner due to ill health and past indiscretions. Chasms emerge within the Democratic Party similar to what the Republicans have endured throughout the election cycle.
  9. Trump wages an anti-Wall Street, anti-open borders, anti-government campaign advocating a near isolationist foreign policy with an emphasis on re-industrialization and job growth. Trade protectionism will be a key theme. Big Business chooses Hillary, much of labor chooses Trump.
  10. Trump wins with a solid South and important rust-belt states such as Ohio and Michigan. 


C-Low said...

I would agree with that prediction.

TigerHawk said...

From your lips to Trump's ears (I actually think you are right about the first two, but that Trump overplays his hand and one of the others emerges to consolidate the anti-Trump vote). Mine are above.

LL said...

Do you REALLY think that Jeb! can win Virginia?

Yes, I know that there are a lot of people swimming in the chum line there hoping that a Bush presidency will usher a still bigger era of growing government and higher deficits - but there are regular people who work for a living in the Old Dominion too - aren't there?

"The Hammer" said...

CW's bother Tubby lives there, so I would think very few.

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