Monday, April 23, 2012

Let's Do the Math

Obama's job approval
Colorado 53
Florida 47.5
Iowa 45
Nevada 49
NH 45
NM 52
NC 45
Ohio 46.0
Pa 45.6
Virginia 47.3
Wis 51.3

This is what the numbers look like now. These are not Romney vs. Obama polls, I'm basing this on job approval numbers which is a bank-shot at best. But it should be close enough for discussion purposes because as Dick (can I suck your toes baby?) Morris is fond of saying, most undecideds go to the challenger.
In the swing states Obama is looking good in Colorado, New Mexico and Wisconsin. So, if the election were held today, with the traditionally Democratic states listed above plus these three, Obama would be at 236, 34 shy of 270. Now, let's say he picks up all the states within striking distance (47 and above), then good night Irene, he wins at 284. But what if he doesn't? He could win CO, NM and WI along with all the smaller states (IA, NV, NH) while adding either VA or NC, and still be 3 or 4 short. What this all boils down to is Obama will have to pick up at least two big states (FL, NC, OH, PA or VA) to win, and at this point in time VA and FL are the most competitive and they would indeed lock it up for him. Obviously the key here is Florida. Take Florida away and Obama has to be nearly perfect everywhere else, and that's easier said than done. Plus the Dems must be worrying about New Jersey, Michigan and Minnesota which are potential pick-offs for the Republicans. A misstep in either of these would make Obama's already precarious situation hopeless.
A lot of things can change before election day and there are countless permutations and possibilities, but in my view the President is in trouble. And if Romney picks Rubio for VP, then turn out the lights the party is over.


Anonymous said...


"The Hammer" said...

Before you start I know I double counted Louisiana and left out Ala-Goddamned-bama. I think there's something Freudian going on but who knows? Regardless, the Republican total is 171.

Mudge said...

Good analysis, Hammer. Thanks.

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