Obama, Nobel, Iran, and Israel: Unintended Consequences

I like to think about alternative futures, and how seemingly disconnected events can come to have disastrous impacts on each other. I'm thinking today about the announcement of President Obama's award of the Nobel Peace Prize, and rumored plans by the Israeli's to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. For the purposes of my scenario planning, I assume that the Israelis have not ruled out an attack. I include in each scenario a probability of occurrence:

Scenario 1: The Award of the Nobel Prize has no impact on Israeli planning (85%). These events are simply not linked.

Scenario 2: The Award of the Nobel Prize leads to events that diminish the probability of an attack by the Israelis(1%). I am thinking here of a scenario in which the Nobel is seen by the Iranians as evidence of a President who is simply too popular worldwide for them to blow off anymore, someone who could successfully lead a concert of denial against them in ways that could threaten regime survival. This causes the Mullahs to make genuine concessions on their nuclear program, leading Israel to stand down.

Scenario 3: The Award of the Nobel prize leads to events that increase the probability of an attack by the Israelis (14%). The Israelis already believe that the President does not favor their interests. Now that he is bolstered by the Nobel, the Israelis (don't forget, they've never been thrilled with Yassir Arafat getting the award) come to feel isolated. Additionally, they suspect that the President will feel an even greater weight as a result of his award to lean on them to make concessions (to the Palestinians) they feel are not in their security interests. The pressure of the Iranian nuclear threat and the isolation from their most important patron (the US) forces the hand of Israeli leadership and they conduct the attack.

Note: If I were a betting man, my money would be on the Nobel having no impact on the Israelis (as you can see, I'm six times more confident in this than in the next outcome). But I'm fourteen times more certain that if there is an impact, it will be on the Israelis, and not the Iranians.