Tuesday, November 6, 2012

The Bradley Effect Gets Power-Tested

I was watching Hannity last night and Ann Coulter brought up the Bradley Effect, which I have thought of from time to time but haven't seen mentioned in this campaign. (by the way I have it on good authority CW writes Ann lascivious letters and signs them "Hunky Sailorboy")  What is the Bradley Effect you ask? It's a polling phenomenon where as white voters poll at X percent but vote at Y percent. In 1982 Tom Bradley polled about 5 points better among white voters than the actually vote count. Why? Some attribute it to racism some to political correctness but regardless it seems some folks are reluctant to give an honest opinion when race is a factor. The Bradley effect has been observed many times including Dinkins in New York City, Wilder in Virginia and Jesse Jackson in the primaries in Wisconsin. And it even showed up in much smaller percentages in  the Obama/McCain contest.

In 2008 the final vote was 52.9% Obama, McCain 45.7% or a spread of 7.2. The final polls were: Marist +9  Zogby +11  IBD/TIPP +8  Gallup +11  CBS +9  ABC +9. So last go round with a wave election when everybody in the country was so excited and there was virtually no societal pressure NOT to support a black man for president (quite the reverse as I recall) the Bradley Effect still accounted for 2-3 percent of the actual vote.

So what can we conclude? Considering race and class warfare have been focused on in this campaign, and considering the mood and tenor of the campaign run by Obama and backed up by the media, I would be surprised if the Bradley Effect didn't come into play; shocked in fact. Therefore I say some of the tied polls in some states are probably off from 3-5 points in Romney's favor. Time will tell.

No comments:

Newer Post Older Post Home