As I wrote in my World Series Post Saturday night, I spent some time in the company of my buddy Rob, a.k.a one of my two favorite Democrats. Rob's been consistent--kinda like me. We became great friends in college at the height of the Reagan era--me basking in it, and him lamenting it. Neither of us has changed our political views much since then--just got a little more wily about how we express them.
So of course, we had a long series of chats about the Virginia Governor's race, and I tried to pin him down on the "bigger meaning" of McDonnell's likely victory. Is it a sign of Deeds' weakness as a candidate? Is it a sign of Obama's declining popularity and a backlash?
Nope--not according to Rob. "It's just the way Virginia does it." And you know what--I think he's right. At least for the past three decades.
Ronald Reagan was inaugurated in January 1981--and in the first Governor's Election (note: I did not use the word "gubernatorial"), Chuck Robb--a Democrat--succeeded a Republican. Reagan won a runaway re-election in 1984--and the people of Virginia voted in another Democrat (Gerald Baliles). George Bush the elder won in 1988--and the people of Virginia--you guessed it--elected another Democrat (Doug Wilder).
When the country next elected a Democrat President--Bill Clinton in the Fall of 1992---the people of Virginia turned to conservative Republican George Allen in the Fall of 1993. When Clinton was re-elected in 1996--Virginia elected Conservative Republican Jim Gilmore in 1997.
George Bush the Younger was a Virginia kind of President, and they went for him big-time in 2000. And then promptly elected a Democrat Governor (Mark Warner) in 2001. Bush was re-elected in 2004 with heavy support in the Old Dominion--and then voters elected Democrat Tim Kaine to the Statehouse in 2005.
So what are we to make of a McDonnell victory? From what I can tell, not much. I honestly don't know that it is a sign of anything--accept as my friend Rob says--"it's the way Virginia does it."
Monday, November 2, 2009
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3 comments:
With all due respect to Rob-who I'm certain is a lovely gentleman- his candidate appears poised to get his ass kicked tomorrow, and his explanation is 'well it's just how Virginia does it.' Isn't that explanation the easiest way to live with a likely loss?
I have a lot more thoughts on this race that I'll share after the (cross fingers) victory party tomorrow night.
Sally--Rob didn't dispute that his candidate is going to get his ass kicked. He simply doesn't see it as part of anything bigger. And I just spent six or eight paragraphs looking into whether recent history supports his theory. Correlation is not causation, but the nearly forty year record of Virginia voters is pretty clear.
Yet if Deeds won tomorrow, the lefties would be touting it as a ringing endorsement of Obama's collectivism.
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