A Tactical Error In The Making

To some extent, I think that all the cosmic tumblers are clicking into place for the President and the Congress to get a healthcare bill passed. I've predicted here all along that they'd get something rather than walk away with nothing. One of my professors in grad school used to say that "in the Congress, the majority does not rule--but a determined majority does". This is a determined majority.

That said, I believe that they are getting ready to make a procedural, tactical mistake--one that could come back to haunt them. It's a little wonky, and a little process-based, but it's worth bringing up.

There are wide differences between the House and Senate bills. The House bill is--for want of a better term--a more liberal bill. That is, it appeals far more to the the Party base. What happens when each body passes a different bill is that a "conference committee" is appointed by party leaders of each party. The majority gets more members, of course, and those members are appointed by the Speaker and the Senate Majority Leader--so they are controlled and reliable. In conference, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN. They can pick and choose, merge, or throw bills out altogether. What comes out of conference is then voted on by each chamber and is not subject to amendments. It appears though, that Democratic leaders are going to do a "conference-lite", in which the Senate Bill is largely accepted by House conferees. This is designed to ensure that whatever the final bill is, it can be passed by the Senate--and the care in which they are moving forward leads me to believe that they'll still need the 60 votes for a motion to proceed, even on a conference bill.

So far, the Democrats have been patient. The President has seen deadline after deadline slip by, as the slow business of legislating is done. But they are really, really trying to get something done before the State of the Union speech (whose date has not yet been set, incidentally). And it is in this final loss of patience with process that the remaining hopes for the bills scuttling are found. The seeds are here to disappoint many in the House--that is, a final bill that 1) removes abortion language driven by pro-life Dem Bart Stupak, and 2) does not contain a public option. Short circuiting the process can and will alienate those in the House who believe the Senate measure is too liberal or not liberal enough. Remember--the House passed its bill by the skin of its teeth. Three changed votes and it doesn't pass.

Is this a long-shot? Yes. As much as I dislike Nancy Pelosi, I think she's a fine tactician. I think she knows how to count. If she thinks she's got the votes to go forward, then she probably does. But it is in this rush at the end that any hope for a mistake exists. Let's hope they make it, so that this poor package of policies is dispatched and a real discussion of health insurance reform can be had.