Saturday, September 12, 2015

Perry Drops Out: How It Will Go From Here (GOP)

Former Texas Governor Rick Perry left the Presidential race yesterday; it just seemed that his candidacy couldn't get any traction.  Two factors I think contributed to his low numbers, both of which are to some extent tied to his perception in the mainstream media.  First, there was the issue of his disastrous, unprepared run in 2012.  He wasn't ready, and it showed.  Bill Clinton similarly beclowned himself in 1988 at the Democratic Convention, but he was a Democrat, and so his sins weren't remembered when he ran in 1992.  The second contribution to Perry's downfall was the plain fact that he was from Texas.  There is lingering Bush Derangement Syndrome among the cognoscenti, and so his twang, and his boots, mattered far more in their evaluation of him than did the plain fact that he was the most successful, best Governor in the union for 14 years.  It is a shame that he didn't do better, but the Presidency is only partially determined on merit.

So, here's how the rest of the GOP process will go, for those interested.

Three blocs will develop.  The first block is the "Outsider" bloc, made up of Fiorina, Carson, and he who shall not be named.  They will fight it out among themselves to see who will be the last outsider standing in February.  I believe it will be Fiorina, but you may differ.

The next bloc is the Jeb Bush bloc.  That's right, he's all by himself in this one.  His name, his money, and his damn good record lead me to believe that he'll continue on into the three way race once the primaries start.

Finally, there's the "Not Jeb" bloc, which is everyone else.  Cruz, Rubio, Walker, and Kasich will fight it out for the third spot in the three way race that will develop.  Cruz likes to think of himself in the first bloc, but he's really here--along with Rand Paul, whose failure to do better than he is reflects his ideological impurity to the libertarians, who just don't like him as much as they did his Dad.

Count everyone else out.  You heard it here first.


"The Hammer" said...

Perry is out because he just didn't get what this election is all about. His comment that if you build a 30 ft wall somebody will show up with a 31 ft ladder revealed him to be out of touch...oldthink. This is a new day and Americans are thinking of themselves again, rather than what we can do for foreigners.
Kasich is Bush without the baggage. He's positioned himself as the establishment candidate after the establishment finally realizes Jeb is a loser. Much like Cruz has with Trump.
Rubio and Walker have underperformed. They would otherwise be great, but they're getting lost in the noise.
I could well see this shaking out to Kasich, Cruz and one other (to be determined later). But who knows? It is VERY early.

LL said...

Perry wasn't ready for prime time. I don't think that it's Texas so much as it is Perry himself. Bush has the money to linger, but his numbers will drop. The only question is one of whether his narcissism will carry him forward to the Republican Convention and whether he will win a single state in the primaries.

Nobody asked me, but let me suggest that IF George Bush had done great and remarkable things for humanity during his 8 years out of office, people would be taking him more seriously. The only people who I know that back Jeb are the eastern political elite GOP types who hope to be named to a position in his administration, and the lemmings who follow in their (broad) wake, also eating chum.

I think that you're right on the residual Pol Class: Kasich, Cruz and somebody else. Since Cruz is Trump lite, I don't know how it will play for him. If Kasich doesn't run out of money, he has a chance of being in the top 3 going into the RNC. Trump and Carson will both be there as will Fiorina, who is going nowhere but up from where she is now.

Imagine (if you will) a Carson/Fiorina Fiorina/Carson R ticket. The only way that the Democrats could top that in the world of progressive politics would be to run two trannys - a black woman who started out as a black man and a Mexican man who started out as a Mexican woman.

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