Tuesday, November 6, 2012
In 2008 the final vote was 52.9% Obama, McCain 45.7% or a spread of 7.2. The final polls were: Marist +9 Zogby +11 IBD/TIPP +8 Gallup +11 CBS +9 ABC +9. So last go round with a wave election when everybody in the country was so excited and there was virtually no societal pressure NOT to support a black man for president (quite the reverse as I recall) the Bradley Effect still accounted for 2-3 percent of the actual vote.
So what can we conclude? Considering race and class warfare have been focused on in this campaign, and considering the mood and tenor of the campaign run by Obama and backed up by the media, I would be surprised if the Bradley Effect didn't come into play; shocked in fact. Therefore I say some of the tied polls in some states are probably off from 3-5 points in Romney's favor. Time will tell.
Posted by "The Hammer" at 11/06/2012