I was watching Hannity last night and Ann Coulter brought up the Bradley Effect, which I have thought of from time to time but haven't seen mentioned in this campaign. (by the way I have it on good authority CW writes Ann lascivious letters and signs them "Hunky Sailorboy") What is the Bradley Effect you ask? It's a polling phenomenon where as white voters poll at X percent but vote at Y percent. In 1982 Tom Bradley polled about 5 points better among white voters than the actually vote count. Why? Some attribute it to racism some to political correctness but regardless it seems some folks are reluctant to give an honest opinion when race is a factor. The Bradley effect has been observed many times including Dinkins in New York City, Wilder in Virginia and Jesse Jackson in the primaries in Wisconsin. And it even showed up in much smaller percentages in the Obama/McCain contest.
In 2008 the final vote was 52.9% Obama, McCain 45.7% or a spread of 7.2. The final polls were: Marist +9 Zogby +11 IBD/TIPP +8 Gallup +11 CBS +9 ABC +9. So last go round with a wave election when everybody in the country was so excited and there was virtually no societal pressure NOT to support a black man for president (quite the reverse as I recall) the Bradley Effect still accounted for 2-3 percent of the actual vote.
So what can we conclude? Considering race and class warfare have been focused on in this campaign, and considering the mood and tenor of the campaign run by Obama and backed up by the media, I would be surprised if the Bradley Effect didn't come into play; shocked in fact. Therefore I say some of the tied polls in some states are probably off from 3-5 points in Romney's favor. Time will tell.
The Blog: A compendium of thoughts on politics, world affairs, economics, pop culture and social issues, from the center right perspective of me--Bryan McGrath--a University of Virginia graduate who spent a career in the world's greatest Navy keeping my mouth shut about politics and social issues (ok, publicly keeping it shut). Those days are over! I've also invited a few friends to join in, so pull up a chair and chime in where you will. Keep it clean, civil, concise and relevant.
The Fish: The fish is a "coat of arms" for the blog, symbolizing three formative influences in the life of the blog founder. The first is his experience at the University of Virginia--symbolized most importantly by the fish itself, or a caricature of a "Wahoo", the fish we have acquired as an informal nickname. Additionally there is the sword, the sword of a Cavalier. It is not wielded in a threatening manner, as this is a civil blog. But it is there, should it be needed. Thirdly, there is the influence of 21 years in the Navy--symbolized by the anchor on the Wahoo's fin (and again, the sword) . Finally, there is the bowler, tuxedo, and monocle, symbols of a refined, intellectual conservatism, or what I seek to encourage here.
The Policy: I take FULL responsibility ONLY for what I write. I do not take responsibility, nor will I be held responsible, for what my guest bloggers write or for what those who offer comments write. I will occasionally exercise my right to edit/delete both blog posts and comments if they do not meet my view of what clean, civil, concise and relevant mean.